MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	7	13	14	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Closed Higher	3	6	5	10	9	8	5	8	9	9	6
Exceeded High	1	4	4	6	7	4	5	7	7	7	4
Scenario Percentage	33%	67%	80%	60%	78%	50%	100%	88%	78%	78%	67%
Avg Max Increase	8.45%	4.42%	5.63%	9.64%	8.59%	5.43%	15.60%	15.14%	11.62%	8.96%	4.64%
Max Increase	8.45%	6.99%	13.07%	17.80%	14.36%	12.92%	40.40%	30.64%	24.53%	22.37%	9.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase	13	7	7	16	15	18	19	17	10	11	16
Avg Max Decline	-2.86%	-0.11%	-1.27%	-0.85%	-2.80%	-1.93%	-1.09%	-1.91%	-2.95%	-0.56%	-0.69%
Max Decline	-2.86%	-1.35%	-5.11%	-1.57%	-11.53%	-2.98%	-3.95%	-5.52%	-6.82%	-3.76%	-1.80%
Avg Days to Max Decline	12	8	10	6	10	14	4	10	4	4	2
2007 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		No		Yes	Yes		Yes				Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years	7	13	14	17	18	18	18	18	18	18	18
Closed Lower	4	7	9	7	9	10	13	10	9	9	12
Penetrated Low	2	7	6	7	7	9	10	8	9	8	6
Scenario Percentage	50%	100%	67%	100%	78%	90%	77%	80%	100%	89%	50%
Avg Max Decline	11.49%	6.47%	5.97%	5.91%	12.63%	11.16%	8.83%	10.78%	8.15%	8.13%	13.43%
Max Decline	12.38%	12.27%	10.39%	11.08%	22.56%	18.76%	19.56%	30.58%	21.10%	16.94%	47.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline	26	14	11	19	23	17	22	14	11	10	16
Avg Max Increase	-1.08%	-0.55%	-0.96%	-1.57%	-1.86%	-1.71%	-3.41%	-2.73%	-5.75%	-2.88%	-4.38%
Max Increase	-2.36%	-2.04%	-4.75%	-6.55%	-5.08%	-5.96%	-7.38%	-7.47%	-27.43%	-11.68%	-7.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase	4	7	8	11	8	13	8	8	19	7	5
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action	No		No			Yes		No	Yes	Yes
High	10.90	10.80	10.74	10.75	10.85	11.05	11.00	11.14	10.70	10.87	10.95
Low	9.86	9.98	10.29	10.41	10.45	10.65	10.52	10.03	10.06	10.09	9.92
Close/Last	9.86	10.65	10.48	10.58	10.79	10.68	10.80	10.43	10.30	10.21	10.39