MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		16	22	26	26	28	28	28	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		7	12	9	13	12	16	13	15	11	13	17
Exceeded High		3	10	7	9	8	12	10	9	9	9	9
Scenario Percentage		43%	83%	78%	69%	67%	75%	77%	60%	82%	69%	53%
Avg Max Increase		17.17%	14.08%	20.38%	10.19%	8.64%	9.59%	12.34%	8.05%	16.92%	16.32%	5.85%
Max Increase		29.20%	69.00%	86.56%	30.43%	19.09%	32.30%	24.38%	33.17%	42.59%	32.42%	14.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	22	11	11	16	15	18	20	14	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.00%	-2.02%	-2.15%	-1.15%	-1.67%	-1.94%	-1.60%	-1.36%	-2.62%	-1.78%	-1.81%
Max Decline		-2.60%	-7.28%	-6.09%	-4.97%	-5.80%	-10.06%	-5.59%	-4.19%	-11.22%	-4.02%	-5.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		16	9	9	8	2	7	5	8	6	6	2
2015 Contract Condition					Yes		Yes				Yes
Action					No		No				Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		16	22	26	26	28	28	28	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		9	10	17	13	16	12	15	14	18	16	11
Penetrated Low		3	8	12	12	13	11	11	13	15	10	6
Scenario Percentage		33%	80%	71%	92%	81%	92%	73%	93%	83%	63%	55%
Avg Max Decline		5.97%	8.21%	7.28%	7.44%	6.38%	7.27%	11.41%	10.42%	9.07%	8.70%	6.97%
Max Decline		6.64%	20.21%	15.80%	16.09%	16.30%	14.03%	22.81%	19.07%	19.01%	35.58%	15.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	18	20	17	15	20	17	18	21	10	8
Avg Max Increase		-3.28%	-1.94%	-2.06%	-1.39%	-1.75%	-2.52%	-1.64%	-2.49%	-3.35%	-3.31%	-1.31%
Max Increase		-10.16%	-6.04%	-6.62%	-6.77%	-6.09%	-14.65%	-4.83%	-11.33%	-8.21%	-9.99%	-2.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	10	11	6	9	10	6	9	7	7	2
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
High	15.05	14.80	14.40	13.68	13.41	13.33	13.11	13.00	12.03	11.16	11.31	10.96
Low	14.78	13.96	13.58	13.19	12.89	12.73	12.38	11.98	10.81	10.33	10.40	9.76
Close/Last	14.80	14.06	13.68	13.19	13.30	12.83	12.84	12.00	10.84	10.75	10.88	10.03