MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		15	21	25	25	27	27	27	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		7	12	9	12	12	15	13	15	11	12	17
Exceeded High		3	10	7	9	8	12	10	9	9	9	9
Scenario Percentage		43%	83%	78%	75%	67%	80%	77%	60%	82%	75%	53%
Avg Max Increase		17.17%	14.08%	20.38%	10.19%	8.64%	9.59%	12.34%	8.05%	16.92%	16.32%	5.85%
Max Increase		29.20%	69.00%	86.56%	30.43%	19.09%	32.30%	24.38%	33.17%	42.59%	32.42%	14.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	17	22	11	11	16	15	18	20	14	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.00%	-2.02%	-2.15%	-1.15%	-1.67%	-1.94%	-1.60%	-1.36%	-2.62%	-1.78%	-1.81%
Max Decline		-2.60%	-7.28%	-6.09%	-4.97%	-5.80%	-10.06%	-5.59%	-4.19%	-11.22%	-4.02%	-5.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		16	9	9	8	2	7	5	8	6	6	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No	No				Yes		Yes	No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		15	21	25	25	27	27	27	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		8	9	16	13	15	12	14	13	17	16	10
Penetrated Low		2	7	11	12	12	11	10	12	14	10	5
Scenario Percentage		25%	78%	69%	92%	80%	92%	71%	92%	82%	63%	50%
Avg Max Decline		5.86%	8.56%	7.63%	7.44%	6.36%	7.27%	11.16%	10.90%	9.06%	8.70%	6.73%
Max Decline		6.64%	20.21%	15.80%	16.09%	16.30%	14.03%	22.81%	19.07%	19.01%	35.58%	15.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	19	17	14	20	19	19	21	10	7
Avg Max Increase		-3.69%	-2.21%	-2.10%	-1.39%	-1.72%	-2.52%	-1.78%	-2.70%	-3.21%	-3.31%	-1.50%
Max Increase		-10.16%	-6.04%	-6.62%	-6.77%	-6.09%	-14.65%	-4.83%	-11.33%	-8.21%	-9.99%	-2.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	11	9	6	8	10	7	10	6	7	2
2014 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes		No			Yes
High	15.98	16.98	16.63	16.55	16.34	16.05	16.29	16.29	15.68	15.89	15.71	15.80
Low	15.32	15.81	15.61	15.80	15.72	15.33	15.40	15.29	15.38	15.30	15.20	15.09
Close/Last	15.81	16.29	16.54	16.32	15.72	15.42	16.29	15.35	15.42	15.64	15.60	15.62