MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		13	19	23	23	25	25	25	26	26	26	26
Closed Higher		6	10	9	11	12	13	13	13	10	12	16
Exceeded High		3	9	7	9	8	10	10	7	9	9	9
Scenario Percentage		50%	90%	78%	82%	67%	77%	77%	54%	90%	75%	56%
Avg Max Increase		17.17%	15.40%	20.38%	10.19%	8.64%	11.30%	12.34%	9.16%	16.92%	16.32%	5.85%
Max Increase		29.20%	69.00%	86.56%	30.43%	19.09%	32.30%	24.38%	33.17%	42.59%	32.42%	14.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase		13	18	22	11	11	19	15	18	20	14	9
Avg Max Decline		-2.00%	-2.24%	-2.15%	-1.15%	-1.67%	-2.31%	-1.60%	-1.54%	-2.62%	-1.78%	-1.81%
Max Decline		-2.60%	-7.28%	-6.09%	-4.97%	-5.80%	-10.06%	-5.59%	-4.19%	-11.22%	-4.02%	-5.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		16	10	9	8	2	7	5	9	6	6	2
2012 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes		No				Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		13	19	23	23	25	25	25	26	26	26	26
Closed Lower		7	9	14	12	13	12	12	13	16	14	9
Penetrated Low		2	7	9	11	10	11	9	12	13	9	5
Scenario Percentage		29%	78%	64%	92%	77%	92%	75%	92%	81%	64%	56%
Avg Max Decline		5.86%	8.56%	8.19%	7.88%	7.24%	7.27%	12.22%	10.90%	9.13%	9.30%	6.73%
Max Decline		6.64%	20.21%	15.80%	16.09%	16.30%	14.03%	22.81%	19.07%	19.01%	35.58%	15.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	19	22	18	13	20	20	19	21	9	7
Avg Max Increase		-3.69%	-2.21%	-2.55%	-1.52%	-1.37%	-2.52%	-1.95%	-2.70%	-3.35%	-3.54%	-1.50%
Max Increase		-10.16%	-6.04%	-6.62%	-6.77%	-6.09%	-14.65%	-4.83%	-11.33%	-8.21%	-9.99%	-2.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	11	10	6	5	10	7	10	7	8	2
2012 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
High	17.22	17.21	18.33	18.81	19.22	17.98	17.40	15.53	15.44	14.75	15.27	15.76
Low	15.92	15.52	15.96	17.15	16.69	16.41	14.69	14.12	14.26	13.78	13.79	14.55
Close/Last	17.21	15.96	17.34	18.79	16.84	17.47	15.41	15.13	14.28	14.46	14.77	14.87