MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	8	14	18	18	20	20	20	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher	4	7	4	8	8	11	10	11	7	10	11
Exceeded High	3	6	2	7	5	8	8	5	6	7	8
Scenario Percentage	75%	86%	50%	88%	62%	73%	80%	45%	86%	70%	73%
Avg Max Increase	17.17%	18.33%	47.47%	8.53%	8.52%	12.11%	10.62%	5.15%	16.00%	16.40%	6.27%
Max Increase	29.20%	69.00%	86.56%	30.43%	19.09%	32.30%	22.36%	12.50%	42.59%	32.42%	14.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase	13	20	16	9	7	18	14	18	20	11	10
Avg Max Decline	-2.00%	-2.10%	-2.26%	-0.53%	-1.38%	-2.83%	-1.39%	-1.87%	-1.01%	-1.61%	-2.03%
Max Decline	-2.60%	-7.28%	-3.73%	-2.79%	-4.09%	-10.06%	-5.26%	-4.19%	-4.21%	-4.02%	-5.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline	16	10	7	9	3	8	3	11	3	7	2
2007 Contract Condition	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years	8	14	18	18	20	20	20	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower	4	7	14	10	12	9	10	10	14	11	9
Penetrated Low	2	6	9	10	9	9	7	9	11	8	5
Scenario Percentage	50%	86%	64%	100%	75%	100%	70%	90%	79%	73%	56%
Avg Max Decline	5.86%	9.25%	8.19%	7.39%	6.24%	6.40%	12.89%	11.58%	8.47%	9.65%	6.73%
Max Decline	6.64%	20.21%	15.80%	16.09%	10.48%	11.70%	22.81%	19.07%	19.01%	35.58%	15.43%
Avg Days To Max Decline	19	20	22	17	15	20	23	20	22	9	7
Avg Max Increase	-3.69%	-2.58%	-2.55%	-0.99%	-1.07%	-1.36%	-1.96%	-1.96%	-3.69%	-2.73%	-1.50%
Max Increase	-10.16%	-6.04%	-6.62%	-2.95%	-6.09%	-6.32%	-4.83%	-6.17%	-8.21%	-8.15%	-2.14%
Avg Days to Max Increase	14	13	10	4	6	9	8	12	8	7	2
2007 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No		No			Yes		Not Yet	Yes
High	10.12	10.29	10.71	10.63	10.70	10.73	10.73	10.95	10.79	10.88	10.34
Low	9.55	10.03	9.59	9.69	10.11	10.30	10.37	10.40	10.24	9.72	9.76
Close/Last	10.12	10.10	9.62	10.40	10.30	10.50	10.65	10.42	10.52	10.08	9.95