MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		19	22	26	26	27	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		11	9	10	14	10	13	12	15	13	15	9
Exceeded High		7	8	5	11	8	11	8	12	10	8	5
Scenario Percentage		64%	89%	50%	79%	80%	85%	67%	80%	77%	53%	56%
Avg Max Increase		3.58%	6.47%	7.47%	13.79%	19.05%	15.53%	8.58%	9.92%	12.84%	8.27%	7.84%
Max Increase		8.60%	11.03%	18.05%	70.33%	85.48%	73.40%	19.52%	32.41%	24.77%	31.92%	13.50%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	22	8	18	21	10	9	17	15	12	10
Avg Max Decline		-2.93%	-3.54%	-1.28%	-2.97%	-2.65%	-1.38%	-1.86%	-2.41%	-2.14%	-1.28%	-0.33%
Max Decline		-6.35%	-11.48%	-3.65%	-8.48%	-6.86%	-5.30%	-6.17%	-10.08%	-6.22%	-4.51%	-1.77%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	18	8	12	9	8	4	7	4	7	4
2014 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No	No				Yes		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		19	22	26	26	27	28	28	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		8	12	15	12	17	15	15	13	15	13	19
Penetrated Low		6	9	11	10	11	13	11	12	12	12	9
Scenario Percentage		75%	75%	73%	83%	65%	87%	73%	92%	80%	92%	47%
Avg Max Decline		10.42%	9.40%	7.75%	8.85%	8.36%	9.85%	7.29%	7.68%	10.33%	9.32%	6.48%
Max Decline		19.64%	20.02%	21.54%	22.30%	16.23%	31.89%	16.45%	14.32%	24.11%	19.90%	10.18%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	14	17	21	19	17	15	22	20	13	8
Avg Max Increase		-0.48%	-2.18%	-2.08%	-3.73%	-2.32%	-1.76%	-2.21%	-3.03%	-3.04%	-2.89%	-0.49%
Max Increase		-3.24%	-6.75%	-11.61%	-12.23%	-6.70%	-7.34%	-8.11%	-16.02%	-10.15%	-12.83%	-1.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	10	7	9	8	5	6	10	8	10	2
2014 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		No				Yes	Yes	No		No		Yes
High	15.61	15.79	15.98	16.84	16.50	16.41	16.15	15.88	16.16	16.18	15.74	16.10
Low	14.86	15.20	15.32	15.81	15.46	15.63	15.54	15.12	15.20	15.21	15.28	15.25
Close/Last	15.61	15.37	15.81	16.15	16.41	16.15	15.54	15.22	16.15	15.28	15.40	15.38