MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	27	30	31	31	31	31	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		11	17	15	14	12	17	13	16	12	17	13
Exceeded High		10	14	10	11	8	14	10	13	7	13	9
Scenario Percentage		91%	82%	67%	79%	67%	82%	77%	81%	58%	76%	69%
Avg Max Increase		10.52%	9.27%	5.96%	6.95%	8.60%	13.54%	16.76%	14.04%	9.67%	8.88%	7.84%
Max Increase		29.36%	23.78%	17.68%	11.53%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	28.51%	20.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	22	16	20	11	19	19	11	10	12	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.58%	-0.87%	-2.09%	-3.07%	-1.09%	-3.09%	-2.84%	-1.57%	-1.98%	-2.79%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.51%	-5.47%	-6.23%	-11.37%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-7.17%	-5.41%	-6.55%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	10	6	14	7	13	8	7	4	7	3
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	27	30	31	31	31	31	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		12	10	15	17	19	14	18	16	20	15	19
Penetrated Low		11	8	10	14	14	12	12	14	14	13	8
Scenario Percentage		92%	80%	67%	82%	74%	86%	67%	88%	70%	87%	42%
Avg Max Decline		7.39%	9.56%	8.60%	8.30%	8.76%	9.10%	8.74%	9.88%	7.47%	5.85%	3.76%
Max Decline		22.37%	27.09%	19.79%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	31.81%	16.43%	11.85%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	16	14	17	19	19	18	16	15	19	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.72%	-2.36%	-0.47%	-1.99%	-2.41%	-3.94%	-2.36%	-1.94%	-3.30%	-1.65%	-1.09%
Max Increase		-5.43%	-6.12%	-3.40%	-6.89%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-8.00%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	13	6	9	9	8	5	9	7	3
2018 Contract Condition				Yes					Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				No					Yes	Yes		Yes
High	10.67	10.54	10.70	11.03	11.78	12.40	12.89	13.10	13.25	12.63	12.58	12.55
Low	10.29	10.16	10.33	10.10	10.30	11.68	12.06	12.55	11.98	11.51	11.31	11.55
Close/Last	10.29	10.36	10.69	10.11	11.74	12.20	12.72	13.07	12.28	11.60	12.53	11.68