MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		22	26	29	30	30	30	30	31	31	31	31
Closed Higher		10	16	15	13	11	16	12	16	12	16	13
Exceeded High		9	13	10	10	7	13	9	13	7	12	9
Scenario Percentage		90%	81%	67%	77%	64%	81%	75%	81%	58%	75%	69%
Avg Max Increase		10.96%	9.20%	5.96%	6.67%	8.78%	14.25%	18.47%	14.04%	9.67%	9.00%	7.71%
Max Increase		29.36%	23.78%	17.68%	11.53%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	27.29%	19.50%
Avg Days To Max Increase		25	21	16	20	9	19	19	11	10	11	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.72%	-0.52%	-2.09%	-3.32%	-1.08%	-3.23%	-2.98%	-1.57%	-1.98%	-2.32%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.51%	-3.08%	-6.23%	-11.37%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-7.17%	-5.41%	-6.55%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		10	9	6	15	6	13	8	7	4	6	3
2017 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	No				Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		22	26	29	30	30	30	30	31	31	31	31
Closed Lower		12	10	14	17	19	14	18	15	19	15	18
Penetrated Low		11	8	10	14	14	12	12	13	13	13	7
Scenario Percentage		92%	80%	71%	82%	74%	86%	67%	87%	68%	87%	39%
Avg Max Decline		7.39%	9.56%	8.60%	8.30%	8.76%	9.10%	8.74%	10.03%	7.86%	5.83%	3.92%
Max Decline		22.37%	27.09%	19.79%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	31.81%	16.43%	11.85%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	16	14	17	19	19	18	16	15	18	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.72%	-2.36%	-0.47%	-1.99%	-2.41%	-3.94%	-2.36%	-1.86%	-3.50%	-1.65%	-1.43%
Max Increase		-5.43%	-6.12%	-3.40%	-6.89%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-8.00%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	8	13	6	9	9	8	5	9	7	3
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Not Yet
High	12.48	12.07	11.41	11.61	12.69	12.43	11.42	10.95	10.20	10.72	10.15	10.00
Low	11.53	11.47	10.34	10.47	11.44	11.13	10.23	9.65	9.61	10.05	9.30	9.14
Close/Last	12.11	11.51	10.56	11.47	11.64	11.16	10.43	9.69	10.13	10.15	9.71	9.36