MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		20	24	27	28	28	28	28	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		9	15	14	12	10	15	11	14	11	15	13
Exceeded High		8	13	9	10	6	12	8	11	7	12	9
Scenario Percentage		89%	87%	64%	83%	60%	80%	73%	79%	64%	80%	69%
Avg Max Increase		11.78%	9.20%	5.44%	6.67%	7.81%	14.32%	19.52%	15.92%	9.67%	9.10%	7.84%
Max Increase		29.36%	23.78%	17.68%	11.53%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	28.51%	20.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		24	21	15	20	9	18	21	11	10	11	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.74%	-0.52%	-2.50%	-3.32%	-1.28%	-3.33%	-2.94%	-1.78%	-1.98%	-2.32%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.51%	-3.08%	-6.23%	-11.37%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-7.17%	-5.41%	-6.55%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	9	5	15	7	12	9	8	4	6	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No					No		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		20	24	27	28	28	28	28	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		11	9	13	16	18	13	17	15	18	14	16
Penetrated Low		10	8	9	14	13	11	11	13	12	12	7
Scenario Percentage		91%	89%	69%	88%	72%	85%	65%	87%	67%	86%	44%
Avg Max Decline		7.14%	9.56%	8.70%	8.30%	8.39%	9.20%	9.46%	10.03%	7.72%	5.86%	3.97%
Max Decline		22.37%	27.09%	19.79%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	31.81%	16.43%	11.85%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	16	14	17	18	21	20	16	16	18	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.94%	-2.36%	-0.59%	-1.99%	-2.42%	-3.84%	-2.36%	-1.86%	-3.38%	-1.53%	-1.43%
Max Increase		-5.43%	-6.12%	-3.40%	-6.89%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-8.00%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	14	6	9	9	9	5	9	7	3
2015 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No		Yes
High	14.07	14.11	14.48	14.90	14.88	14.65	14.10	13.28	13.08	12.97	12.62	12.55
Low	13.63	13.80	13.94	14.48	14.58	13.78	13.23	12.81	12.40	11.38	11.81	11.48
Close/Last	13.88	13.94	14.48	14.88	14.62	13.90	13.35	12.86	12.90	12.29	12.34	11.49