MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		19	23	26	27	27	27	27	28	28	28	28
Closed Higher		8	14	13	12	10	15	11	13	11	14	13
Exceeded High		7	12	9	10	6	12	8	11	7	13	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	86%	69%	83%	60%	80%	73%	85%	64%	93%	69%
Avg Max Increase		12.48%	9.72%	5.44%	6.67%	7.81%	14.32%	19.52%	15.92%	9.67%	8.88%	7.84%
Max Increase		29.36%	23.78%	17.68%	11.53%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	28.51%	20.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	20	15	20	9	18	21	11	10	12	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.99%	-0.56%	-2.50%	-3.32%	-1.28%	-3.33%	-2.94%	-1.78%	-1.98%	-2.79%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.51%	-3.08%	-6.23%	-11.37%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-7.17%	-5.41%	-6.55%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	10	5	15	7	12	9	8	4	7	3
2014 Contract Condition			Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action			Yes		Yes	No	No				Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		19	23	26	27	27	27	27	28	28	28	28
Closed Lower		11	9	13	15	17	12	16	15	17	14	15
Penetrated Low		10	8	9	13	12	10	10	13	12	12	6
Scenario Percentage		91%	89%	69%	87%	71%	83%	63%	87%	71%	86%	40%
Avg Max Decline		7.14%	9.56%	8.70%	8.21%	8.44%	9.41%	9.25%	10.03%	7.72%	5.86%	3.90%
Max Decline		22.37%	27.09%	19.79%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	31.81%	16.43%	11.85%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	16	14	17	17	22	19	16	16	18	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.94%	-2.36%	-0.59%	-2.13%	-2.50%	-4.28%	-2.42%	-1.86%	-3.38%	-1.53%	-1.61%
Max Increase		-5.43%	-6.12%	-3.40%	-6.89%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-8.00%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		11	8	14	7	9	10	7	5	9	7	3
2014 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		No				Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet
High	15.71	15.72	15.61	15.79	15.98	16.84	16.40	16.28	16.00	15.71	15.99	16.01
Low	15.30	15.37	14.86	15.20	15.32	15.85	15.28	15.40	15.31	14.92	15.05	15.25
Close/Last	15.69	15.57	15.61	15.37	15.81	16.00	16.26	15.92	15.34	15.11	15.96	15.51