MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		15	19	22	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24
Closed Higher		7	11	11	10	8	11	9	11	9	12	12
Exceeded High		6	9	8	8	5	9	6	10	6	10	9
Scenario Percentage		86%	82%	73%	80%	63%	82%	67%	91%	67%	83%	75%
Avg Max Increase		13.21%	11.27%	5.78%	6.62%	7.26%	15.59%	20.21%	15.37%	10.31%	10.57%	7.71%
Max Increase		29.36%	23.78%	17.68%	11.53%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	27.29%	19.50%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	18	14	19	10	20	22	11	10	13	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.87%	-0.10%	-2.04%	-2.76%	-1.53%	-3.94%	-3.57%	-1.41%	-1.22%	-2.73%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.51%	-2.35%	-4.80%	-6.46%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-7.17%	-4.52%	-3.92%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	8	5	15	8	15	10	8	5	7	3
2010 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		15	19	22	23	23	23	23	24	24	24	24
Closed Lower		8	8	11	13	15	12	14	13	15	12	12
Penetrated Low		7	7	8	11	12	10	8	11	11	11	5
Scenario Percentage		88%	88%	73%	85%	80%	83%	57%	85%	73%	92%	42%
Avg Max Decline		7.21%	9.56%	7.31%	8.01%	8.44%	9.41%	10.17%	10.39%	8.10%	5.55%	4.32%
Max Decline		22.37%	27.09%	18.97%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	31.81%	16.43%	11.85%	5.97%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	15	12	17	17	22	22	16	16	17	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.28%	-2.00%	-0.66%	-2.54%	-2.50%	-4.28%	-2.96%	-1.46%	-3.48%	-1.60%	-1.93%
Max Increase		-5.43%	-6.12%	-3.40%	-6.89%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-3.74%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		15	8	16	8	9	10	8	3	10	7	4
2010 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes			Yes			Yes
Action		Yes				No			No			Yes
High	13.87	12.99	12.61	12.74	12.79	13.05	14.27	14.41	14.43	14.78	15.50	15.99
Low	12.26	12.20	11.87	12.20	12.21	12.40	12.59	13.59	13.27	13.34	14.64	14.23
Close/Last	12.39	12.36	12.45	12.67	12.79	12.59	14.17	14.29	13.57	14.69	15.31	14.57