MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		13	17	20	21	21	21	21	22	22	22	22
Closed Higher		6	9	9	9	7	10	7	11	8	11	11
Exceeded High		5	7	7	7	5	8	4	10	5	10	9
Scenario Percentage		83%	78%	78%	78%	71%	80%	57%	91%	63%	91%	82%
Avg Max Increase		9.98%	10.71%	6.18%	5.92%	7.26%	17.31%	27.57%	15.37%	10.60%	10.86%	7.84%
Max Increase		21.93%	18.97%	17.68%	11.04%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	28.51%	20.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase		23	16	14	17	10	21	20	11	9	14	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.34%	0.32%	-1.81%	-2.72%	-1.53%	-3.92%	-2.67%	-1.41%	-1.39%	-3.50%	-1.10%
Max Decline		-4.10%	-2.35%	-4.80%	-6.46%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-5.59%	-4.52%	-3.92%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	10	4	13	8	14	9	8	3	8	3
2008 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes				No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		13	17	20	21	21	21	21	22	22	22	22
Closed Lower		7	8	11	12	14	11	14	11	14	11	11
Penetrated Low		6	7	8	10	12	9	8	10	10	10	4
Scenario Percentage		86%	88%	73%	83%	86%	82%	57%	91%	71%	91%	36%
Avg Max Decline		7.75%	9.56%	7.31%	7.86%	8.44%	9.96%	10.17%	8.25%	7.26%	5.80%	3.99%
Max Decline		22.37%	27.09%	18.97%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	16.28%	12.15%	11.85%	5.29%
Avg Days To Max Decline		23	15	12	16	17	23	22	15	18	20	10
Avg Max Increase		-2.64%	-2.00%	-0.66%	-2.10%	-2.50%	-4.75%	-2.96%	-1.51%	-3.14%	-1.71%	-1.78%
Max Increase		-5.43%	-6.12%	-3.40%	-6.87%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-3.74%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-3.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		16	8	16	6	9	11	8	3	10	8	4
2008 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			No	Yes	Yes		No
High	11.05	11.50	11.81	11.46	11.55	11.69	11.25	11.40	12.09	12.25	13.49	13.74
Low	10.48	10.99	10.90	11.15	11.05	11.01	10.80	10.88	11.35	11.71	12.10	12.83
Close/Last	10.98	11.43	11.25	11.17	11.16	11.27	11.10	11.40	12.09	12.17	12.87	13.55