MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Rough Rice(CBOT) as of Jan 01, 2008
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	12	16	19	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21
Closed Higher	5	9	9	9	6	10	6	10	7	10	10
Exceeded High	4	7	7	7	5	8	3	9	4	9	8
Scenario Percentage	80%	78%	78%	78%	83%	80%	50%	90%	57%	90%	80%
Avg Max Increase	11.64%	10.71%	6.18%	5.92%	7.26%	17.31%	34.27%	15.79%	10.03%	10.79%	8.08%
Max Increase	21.93%	18.97%	17.68%	11.04%	19.56%	71.94%	87.52%	76.44%	21.38%	28.51%	20.65%
Avg Days To Max Increase	26	16	14	17	10	21	16	9	4	14	14
Avg Max Decline	-1.72%	0.32%	-1.81%	-2.72%	-1.53%	-3.92%	-3.41%	-1.22%	-1.59%	-3.86%	-1.31%
Max Decline	-4.10%	-2.35%	-4.80%	-6.46%	-3.49%	-7.47%	-5.59%	-4.52%	-3.92%	-9.88%	-4.72%
Avg Days to Max Decline	13	10	4	13	8	14	10	7	4	8	3
2007 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes			Yes		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years	12	16	19	20	20	20	20	21	21	21	21
Closed Lower	7	7	10	11	14	10	14	11	14	11	11
Penetrated Low	6	7	7	9	12	9	8	10	10	10	5
Scenario Percentage	86%	100%	70%	82%	86%	90%	57%	91%	71%	91%	45%
Avg Max Decline	7.75%	9.56%	8.15%	8.37%	8.44%	9.96%	10.17%	8.25%	7.26%	5.80%	15.12%
Max Decline	22.37%	27.09%	18.97%	20.73%	22.74%	23.43%	15.87%	16.28%	12.15%	11.85%	37.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline	23	15	12	16	17	23	22	15	18	20	9
Avg Max Increase	-2.64%	-2.00%	-0.27%	-1.81%	-2.50%	-4.75%	-2.96%	-1.51%	-3.14%	-1.71%	-2.27%
Max Increase	-5.43%	-6.12%	-2.40%	-6.87%	-13.40%	-13.47%	-5.25%	-3.74%	-9.69%	-5.96%	-4.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase	16	8	17	5	9	11	8	3	10	8	4
2007 Contract Condition	Yes		Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes
Action	Yes		No			Yes	No		No
High	9.37	9.36	9.35	9.77	9.82	9.91	10.36	10.18	10.23	10.34	10.22
Low	9.08	8.81	9.13	9.13	9.25	9.62	9.01	9.15	9.50	9.63	9.75
Close/Last	9.17	9.35	9.21	9.72	9.80	9.72	9.05	9.95	9.81	9.98	10.13