MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		17	28	30	32	34	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		9	12	17	21	23	17	17	23	20	20	18
Exceeded High		8	11	16	19	20	13	16	21	17	16	10
Scenario Percentage		89%	92%	94%	90%	87%	76%	94%	91%	85%	80%	56%
Avg Max Increase		8.17%	11.36%	9.46%	9.77%	8.54%	8.79%	9.86%	11.89%	10.83%	9.56%	7.84%
Max Increase		17.43%	22.03%	21.85%	27.32%	35.93%	17.44%	33.82%	68.80%	31.54%	21.87%	16.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	16	18	15	15	20	17	18	19	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.30%	-3.38%	-2.72%	-2.97%	-2.13%	-3.06%	-3.15%	-2.64%	-3.56%	-2.55%	-1.53%
Max Decline		-7.37%	-17.20%	-14.07%	-9.08%	-8.98%	-10.81%	-15.76%	-14.27%	-13.09%	-14.62%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	10	5	7	13	10	8	10	6	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	No

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		17	28	30	32	34	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		8	15	13	11	11	19	19	13	16	16	18
Penetrated Low		4	10	5	6	6	12	12	10	8	14	14
Scenario Percentage		50%	67%	38%	55%	55%	63%	63%	77%	50%	88%	78%
Avg Max Decline		18.66%	11.88%	19.10%	9.13%	9.48%	9.32%	9.84%	9.68%	17.72%	13.77%	12.86%
Max Decline		26.89%	52.63%	50.59%	20.10%	22.73%	17.58%	32.26%	25.87%	50.85%	59.61%	34.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	14	20	15	19	16	17	17	16	13	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.61%	-1.90%	-3.22%	-3.42%	-3.29%	-1.04%	-2.57%	-2.89%	-1.38%	-3.11%	-3.64%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-7.38%	-6.98%	-14.20%	-6.97%	-3.88%	-8.91%	-15.40%	-3.78%	-10.07%	-15.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	11	10	9	6	8	12	7	8	3
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	156.05	163.02	165.23	149.78	135.42	89.41	100.68	117.31	115.97	122.53	120.59	120.58
Low	144.19	147.64	138.53	125.30	66.07	62.55	73.94	97.50	104.52	107.22	105.43	100.31
Close/Last	148.63	158.39	139.49	126.59	78.29	78.17	99.89	107.54	108.49	117.65	116.52	103.22