MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		16	27	29	31	33	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		8	12	17	21	23	16	16	22	19	20	18
Exceeded High		7	11	16	19	20	12	15	20	17	16	10
Scenario Percentage		88%	92%	94%	90%	87%	75%	94%	91%	89%	80%	56%
Avg Max Increase		8.72%	11.36%	9.46%	9.77%	8.54%	8.07%	9.59%	11.84%	10.83%	9.47%	7.70%
Max Increase		17.43%	22.03%	21.85%	27.32%	35.93%	15.46%	33.82%	68.80%	31.54%	21.87%	16.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	16	18	15	15	20	17	18	19	12	13
Avg Max Decline		-1.44%	-3.38%	-2.72%	-2.97%	-2.13%	-3.12%	-3.17%	-2.72%	-3.56%	-2.55%	-1.53%
Max Decline		-7.37%	-17.20%	-14.07%	-9.08%	-8.98%	-10.81%	-15.76%	-14.27%	-13.09%	-14.62%	-4.35%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	10	5	7	14	9	8	10	6	4
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes		No	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		16	27	29	31	33	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		8	14	12	10	10	19	19	13	16	15	17
Penetrated Low		4	9	4	5	6	12	12	10	8	13	13
Scenario Percentage		50%	64%	33%	50%	60%	63%	63%	77%	50%	87%	76%
Avg Max Decline		18.66%	7.36%	11.23%	6.94%	9.48%	9.32%	9.84%	9.68%	17.72%	13.54%	12.71%
Max Decline		26.89%	14.31%	18.56%	11.96%	22.73%	17.58%	32.26%	25.87%	50.85%	59.61%	34.02%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	13	20	14	19	16	17	17	16	14	19
Avg Max Increase		-2.61%	-1.29%	-2.28%	-1.26%	-3.29%	-1.04%	-2.57%	-2.89%	-1.38%	-3.09%	-3.70%
Max Increase		-4.70%	-5.94%	-4.95%	-5.79%	-6.97%	-3.88%	-8.91%	-15.40%	-3.78%	-10.07%	-15.19%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	7	13	12	9	6	8	12	7	8	3
2019 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes			Yes
Action		No					Yes			No
High	180.35	156.11	151.60	161.40	166.31	179.12	175.80	165.27	171.35	162.10	171.96	165.97
Low	141.88	126.84	130.74	143.75	154.81	164.81	149.12	140.96	154.33	140.57	141.61	146.82
Close/Last	144.92	133.51	144.12	158.51	164.09	175.76	150.45	162.69	163.97	148.12	152.91	159.46