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ScenarioSM Study for December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jun 08, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
Tested Years | 16 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | |
Closed Higher | 8 | 12 | 17 | 21 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 7 | 11 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 12 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 88% | 92% | 94% | 90% | 87% | 75% | 94% | 91% | 89% | 80% | 56% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.72% | 11.36% | 9.46% | 9.77% | 8.54% | 8.07% | 9.59% | 11.84% | 10.83% | 9.47% | 7.70% | |
Max Increase | 17.43% | 22.03% | 21.85% | 27.32% | 35.93% | 15.46% | 33.82% | 68.80% | 31.54% | 21.87% | 16.31% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 16 | 18 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.44% | -3.38% | -2.72% | -2.97% | -2.13% | -3.12% | -3.17% | -2.72% | -3.56% | -2.55% | -1.53% | |
Max Decline | -7.37% | -17.20% | -14.07% | -9.08% | -8.98% | -10.81% | -15.76% | -14.27% | -13.09% | -14.62% | -4.35% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 7 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 4 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.