MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Dec 30, 2011 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct |
| Tested Years | 8 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 27 | |
| Closed Higher | 4 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 14 | 16 | 15 | |
| Exceeded High | 4 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 13 | 13 | 7 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 88% | 92% | 94% | 89% | 75% | 100% | 89% | 93% | 81% | 47% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.10% | 13.01% | 10.63% | 9.54% | 8.97% | 8.90% | 10.27% | 12.58% | 11.00% | 9.16% | 8.24% | |
| Max Increase | 16.96% | 22.03% | 21.85% | 27.32% | 35.93% | 15.46% | 33.82% | 68.80% | 31.54% | 21.87% | 16.31% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 22 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 15 | 16 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.14% | -3.73% | -2.00% | -3.05% | -1.78% | -2.56% | -3.46% | -1.77% | -3.72% | -2.74% | -1.80% | |
| Max Decline | -7.37% | -17.20% | -5.42% | -9.08% | -8.98% | -5.66% | -15.76% | -9.35% | -13.09% | -14.62% | -4.35% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 2 | |
| 2011 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
