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ScenarioSM Study for November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 17 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 34 | 35 | 35 | 36 | 36 | 36 | 36 | |
Closed Higher | 10 | 14 | 13 | 18 | 24 | 26 | 17 | 17 | 23 | 22 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 16 | 21 | 20 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 90% | 86% | 92% | 100% | 92% | 85% | 82% | 94% | 91% | 91% | 72% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.72% | 8.16% | 10.60% | 9.79% | 10.17% | 10.60% | 8.33% | 10.74% | 13.00% | 10.60% | 7.40% | |
Max Increase | 20.71% | 17.79% | 21.12% | 21.93% | 28.31% | 53.40% | 18.65% | 40.62% | 71.91% | 29.31% | 15.24% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 17 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 17 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.74% | -1.07% | -3.35% | -2.32% | -2.71% | -2.32% | -3.01% | -3.21% | -2.78% | -4.32% | -2.10% | |
Max Decline | -7.75% | -7.21% | -16.67% | -14.14% | -9.73% | -9.50% | -11.14% | -16.10% | -14.39% | -14.50% | -5.70% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 2 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No |
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