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ScenarioSM Study for November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 15 | 24 | 26 | 28 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
Closed Higher | 9 | 13 | 12 | 17 | 23 | 24 | 16 | 15 | 21 | 21 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 8 | 11 | 11 | 17 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 89% | 85% | 92% | 100% | 91% | 88% | 81% | 93% | 90% | 95% | 76% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.47% | 8.42% | 10.14% | 9.58% | 10.20% | 8.56% | 7.54% | 10.83% | 13.34% | 10.91% | 7.67% | |
Max Increase | 20.71% | 17.79% | 21.12% | 21.93% | 28.31% | 37.88% | 14.84% | 40.62% | 71.91% | 29.31% | 15.24% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 20 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 17 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.80% | -1.01% | -3.65% | -2.32% | -2.86% | -2.16% | -3.07% | -3.24% | -2.25% | -4.32% | -2.10% | |
Max Decline | -7.75% | -7.21% | -16.67% | -14.14% | -9.73% | -9.50% | -11.14% | -16.10% | -9.62% | -14.50% | -5.70% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 13 | 2 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.