MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for November RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2013 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
| Tested Years | 9 | 18 | 20 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 28 | 28 | |
| Closed Higher | 5 | 10 | 10 | 15 | 20 | 20 | 12 | 12 | 19 | 17 | 15 | |
| Exceeded High | 4 | 9 | 9 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 10 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 11 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 80% | 90% | 90% | 100% | 90% | 85% | 83% | 100% | 89% | 100% | 73% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 13.81% | 9.52% | 11.68% | 10.40% | 10.03% | 9.01% | 8.09% | 11.32% | 14.03% | 10.74% | 8.32% | |
| Max Increase | 20.71% | 17.79% | 21.12% | 21.93% | 28.31% | 37.88% | 14.84% | 40.62% | 71.91% | 29.31% | 15.24% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 19 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.68% | -0.94% | -3.34% | -1.47% | -2.74% | -1.81% | -2.51% | -3.51% | -1.84% | -4.36% | -2.33% | |
| Max Decline | -7.75% | -7.21% | -16.67% | -6.02% | -9.73% | -9.50% | -6.04% | -16.10% | -9.62% | -14.50% | -5.70% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 13 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 12 | 2 | |
| 2012 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
