MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		19	31	33	36	36	37	38	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		9	17	16	21	21	22	29	29	22	20	23
Exceeded High		9	11	15	20	18	20	26	25	19	18	20
Scenario Percentage		100%	65%	94%	95%	86%	91%	90%	86%	86%	90%	87%
Avg Max Increase		7.50%	8.18%	9.99%	10.15%	14.43%	12.55%	11.72%	12.02%	8.53%	13.65%	13.84%
Max Increase		16.67%	13.18%	20.78%	26.77%	32.51%	23.87%	29.60%	56.49%	19.80%	59.71%	77.71%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	24	17	19	18	19	16	16	17	17	20
Avg Max Decline		-0.73%	-1.71%	-1.69%	-1.45%	-3.05%	-2.08%	-2.83%	-2.52%	-3.94%	-4.33%	-2.89%
Max Decline		-2.63%	-7.54%	-11.27%	-7.57%	-16.73%	-13.47%	-9.33%	-10.88%	-12.09%	-15.86%	-14.12%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	9	7	9	8	8	6	7	12	13	6
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		19	31	33	36	36	37	38	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		10	14	17	15	15	15	9	10	17	19	16
Penetrated Low		8	12	14	9	9	7	7	8	12	11	10
Scenario Percentage		80%	86%	82%	60%	60%	47%	78%	80%	71%	58%	63%
Avg Max Decline		12.60%	13.87%	12.31%	15.17%	16.88%	15.89%	9.50%	8.97%	10.04%	10.98%	11.04%
Max Decline		48.31%	38.42%	26.77%	38.53%	58.49%	54.12%	18.42%	21.11%	19.59%	21.63%	23.81%
Avg Days To Max Decline		9	15	19	14	16	16	9	15	18	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-1.14%	-1.46%	-1.10%	-1.78%	-1.31%	-4.09%	-4.66%	-3.07%	-1.73%	-3.28%	-1.55%
Max Increase		-6.16%	-5.28%	-6.80%	-5.91%	-6.86%	-8.64%	-16.58%	-7.50%	-9.98%	-9.82%	-5.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase		4	4	6	5	6	12	10	15	8	6	4
2023 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No					Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	257.95	245.92	252.25	259.83	250.10	260.86	253.16	260.76	263.89	247.36	250.85	292.57
Low	237.34	221.20	231.55	232.44	219.10	229.17	230.26	220.09	234.08	215.00	227.76	238.92
Close/Last	238.82	226.01	244.12	246.94	247.93	251.25	247.10	246.16	239.82	230.84	246.25	289.55