MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		16	28	30	33	33	34	35	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		8	15	14	18	18	20	27	27	20	18	21
Exceeded High		8	10	13	17	16	18	24	23	17	16	18
Scenario Percentage		100%	67%	93%	94%	89%	90%	89%	85%	85%	89%	86%
Avg Max Increase		7.28%	8.36%	9.64%	8.49%	12.50%	12.01%	10.90%	11.45%	8.29%	13.62%	15.12%
Max Increase		16.67%	13.18%	20.78%	19.30%	30.40%	23.87%	29.60%	56.49%	19.80%	59.71%	77.71%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	26	16	18	19	19	16	16	17	16	20
Avg Max Decline		-0.89%	-2.05%	-0.97%	-1.14%	-3.34%	-2.24%	-2.92%	-2.58%	-4.30%	-4.07%	-2.08%
Max Decline		-2.63%	-7.54%	-7.53%	-7.48%	-16.73%	-13.47%	-9.33%	-10.88%	-12.09%	-15.86%	-8.58%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	10	7	10	9	8	6	7	11	11	5
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		16	28	30	33	33	34	35	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		8	13	16	15	15	14	8	9	16	18	15
Penetrated Low		7	11	13	9	9	6	6	7	12	10	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	85%	81%	60%	60%	43%	75%	78%	75%	56%	60%
Avg Max Decline		12.67%	14.94%	13.06%	15.17%	16.88%	16.72%	8.97%	8.78%	10.04%	9.91%	10.67%
Max Decline		48.31%	38.42%	26.77%	38.53%	58.49%	54.12%	18.42%	21.11%	19.59%	20.50%	23.81%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	17	20	14	16	16	10	17	18	16	17
Avg Max Increase		-1.09%	-1.39%	-0.88%	-1.78%	-1.31%	-3.85%	-4.23%	-3.44%	-1.73%	-3.06%	-1.62%
Max Increase		-6.16%	-5.28%	-6.80%	-5.91%	-6.86%	-8.64%	-16.58%	-7.50%	-9.98%	-9.82%	-5.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	4	6	5	6	12	9	17	8	6	4
2020 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes				Not Yet
High	165.92	174.17	170.07	175.11	182.88	189.36	169.76	151.53	93.11	110.20	130.90	127.74
Low	153.78	155.06	156.41	163.67	166.16	157.78	140.39	65.95	65.16	78.93	106.33	113.42
Close/Last	159.78	160.64	163.64	167.33	178.28	158.86	142.03	79.87	83.65	109.27	118.74	117.11