MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		16	26	27	28	31	31	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		9	11	15	13	17	18	18	25	23	19	15
Exceeded High		6	9	10	12	16	15	18	22	20	15	10
Scenario Percentage		67%	82%	67%	92%	94%	83%	100%	88%	87%	79%	67%
Avg Max Increase		10.08%	8.12%	7.71%	9.91%	9.02%	14.32%	12.22%	10.95%	10.47%	9.67%	9.15%
Max Increase		27.22%	17.17%	13.02%	20.89%	20.34%	33.07%	26.78%	30.63%	41.22%	16.94%	18.79%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	15	24	17	19	20	19	15	16	17	16
Avg Max Decline		-0.47%	-1.17%	-1.99%	-0.90%	-1.10%	-2.99%	-2.83%	-2.65%	-2.60%	-5.15%	-1.96%
Max Decline		-2.71%	-6.20%	-7.66%	-7.68%	-7.85%	-16.59%	-13.61%	-7.23%	-12.59%	-12.28%	-4.69%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	5	12	7	8	9	9	6	7	11	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun
Tested Years		16	26	27	28	31	31	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		7	14	12	14	14	13	15	8	10	14	18
Penetrated Low		5	11	9	12	9	7	7	6	7	11	8
Scenario Percentage		71%	79%	75%	86%	64%	54%	47%	75%	70%	79%	44%
Avg Max Decline		17.07%	12.23%	15.35%	12.91%	15.10%	13.52%	8.79%	7.91%	9.95%	11.32%	11.56%
Max Decline		44.19%	48.88%	38.92%	26.88%	38.53%	36.69%	20.43%	13.15%	19.87%	22.71%	21.86%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	17	17	19	14	14	14	7	17	20	22
Avg Max Increase		-0.23%	-0.52%	-1.88%	-1.07%	-2.19%	-1.07%	-2.99%	-1.41%	-3.48%	-2.44%	-1.79%
Max Increase		-2.09%	-5.94%	-4.96%	-11.66%	-5.81%	-6.19%	-8.84%	-5.11%	-7.24%	-10.57%	-4.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	6	3	7	8	6	16	6	12	10	4
2018 Contract Condition								Yes				Yes
Action								No				Not Yet
High	165.26	166.29	174.85	183.35	190.22	195.62	204.05	203.11	203.44	213.26	226.86	216.35
Low	151.00	157.79	164.45	168.86	180.56	182.24	193.27	181.14	184.00	192.40	204.64	198.35
Close/Last	165.26	166.29	171.10	182.66	185.93	195.05	200.94	190.25	200.34	211.27	215.28	215.12