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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jul 19, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   20 29 32 33 37 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   12 15 13 19 19 23 27 20 31 29 22
Exceeded High   10 11 11 13 17 22 22 20 27 24 14
Scenario Percentage   83% 73% 85% 68% 89% 96% 81% 100% 87% 83% 64%
Avg Max Increase   5.52% 6.65% 8.07% 7.88% 11.37% 10.44% 14.52% 14.90% 12.05% 13.34% 8.98%
Max Increase   12.65% 13.21% 17.64% 13.11% 21.01% 28.47% 37.05% 30.89% 33.66% 64.48% 23.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 16 15 21 18 18 19 21 16 14 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.44% -1.73% -0.99% -1.63% -1.87% -1.66% -3.79% -2.63% -2.87% -2.30% -2.50%
Max Decline   -12.09% -3.52% -6.49% -7.78% -11.81% -8.15% -17.05% -13.80% -13.26% -9.95% -6.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 9 4 9 6 8 9 10 5 6 6
2025 Contract Condition         Yes   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes
Action         No   Yes No   Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   20 29 32 33 37 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   8 14 18 14 18 17 13 20 9 11 18
Penetrated Low   7 9 13 12 16 9 8 12 5 8 14
Scenario Percentage   88% 64% 72% 86% 89% 53% 62% 60% 56% 73% 78%
Avg Max Decline   11.30% 12.89% 12.33% 14.02% 10.60% 15.28% 20.34% 13.85% 9.42% 9.36% 9.07%
Max Decline   23.47% 44.50% 49.69% 39.46% 27.20% 39.30% 65.38% 60.95% 15.58% 17.72% 25.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 19 14 15 15 15 15 14 4 13 16
Avg Max Increase   -0.18% -1.25% -0.77% -1.68% -1.35% -2.66% -1.87% -3.72% -1.64% -2.93% -1.39%
Max Increase   -3.70% -8.90% -6.35% -4.82% -6.52% -5.94% -6.87% -9.55% -4.71% -7.51% -5.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 10 4 8 8 8 16 3 9 5
2025 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes Yes No   Yes     Yes   No  
High 235.52 239.60 229.52 217.72 229.52 220.58 218.94 235.51 233.23 226.63 230.32 214.80
Low 221.57 222.32 213.65 199.83 205.48 208.84 208.37 218.97 215.76 205.67 185.66 193.67
Close/Last 233.31 228.76 217.85 209.21 212.30 209.51 218.53 224.84 219.28 225.94 199.27 201.51

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