MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jun 05, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		18	27	30	31	35	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		11	14	13	18	19	22	25	19	29	28	21
Exceeded High		9	10	11	13	17	21	21	19	25	24	12
Scenario Percentage		82%	71%	85%	72%	89%	95%	84%	100%	86%	86%	57%
Avg Max Increase		5.44%	6.70%	8.07%	7.88%	11.37%	10.57%	14.69%	15.04%	12.73%	13.34%	8.57%
Max Increase		12.65%	13.21%	17.64%	13.11%	21.01%	28.47%	37.05%	30.89%	33.66%	64.48%	23.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	16	15	21	18	19	19	21	16	14	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.43%	-1.93%	-0.99%	-1.63%	-1.87%	-1.75%	-3.77%	-2.70%	-3.04%	-2.30%	-2.33%
Max Decline		-12.09%	-3.52%	-6.49%	-7.78%	-11.81%	-8.15%	-17.05%	-13.80%	-13.26%	-9.95%	-6.00%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	9	4	9	6	8	9	10	5	6	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		18	27	30	31	35	38	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		7	13	16	13	16	16	13	19	9	10	17
Penetrated Low		6	8	12	11	14	9	8	11	5	8	13
Scenario Percentage		86%	62%	75%	85%	88%	56%	62%	58%	56%	80%	76%
Avg Max Decline		11.08%	13.46%	12.64%	14.49%	11.57%	15.28%	20.34%	13.72%	9.42%	9.36%	9.34%
Max Decline		23.47%	44.50%	49.69%	39.46%	27.20%	39.30%	65.38%	60.95%	15.58%	17.72%	24.83%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	20	14	16	17	15	15	15	4	13	17
Avg Max Increase		-0.15%	-1.42%	-0.70%	-1.67%	-1.37%	-2.66%	-1.87%	-3.60%	-1.64%	-2.93%	-1.43%
Max Increase		-3.70%	-8.90%	-6.35%	-4.82%	-6.52%	-5.94%	-6.87%	-9.55%	-4.71%	-7.51%	-5.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	8	9	4	9	8	8	14	3	9	6
2024 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes
High	225.91	248.92	253.02	264.52	251.03	244.17	239.13	248.70	253.50	266.92	278.06	264.56
Low	213.36	219.57	242.64	247.16	231.02	226.19	218.68	221.58	230.34	244.36	258.98	238.78
Close/Last	223.89	248.92	249.17	247.27	239.85	235.25	227.54	240.53	249.54	264.59	265.41	241.74