MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		16	25	28	29	33	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		10	14	12	16	18	20	23	18	27	27	20
Exceeded High		8	10	10	12	16	19	20	18	23	23	12
Scenario Percentage		80%	71%	83%	75%	89%	95%	87%	100%	85%	85%	60%
Avg Max Increase		5.70%	6.70%	7.94%	8.01%	11.62%	9.84%	13.57%	14.44%	12.05%	12.69%	7.95%
Max Increase		12.65%	13.21%	17.64%	13.11%	21.01%	27.36%	32.57%	30.89%	32.29%	64.48%	23.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	16	14	22	17	18	20	22	16	14	19
Avg Max Decline		-1.23%	-1.93%	-1.09%	-1.90%	-1.25%	-1.50%	-3.90%	-2.89%	-3.23%	-2.28%	-2.96%
Max Decline		-7.41%	-3.52%	-6.49%	-7.78%	-8.06%	-8.15%	-17.05%	-13.80%	-13.26%	-9.95%	-6.34%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	9	5	10	5	8	10	11	5	6	7
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		16	25	28	29	33	36	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		6	11	15	13	15	16	13	18	9	9	16
Penetrated Low		5	7	12	11	13	9	8	10	5	7	13
Scenario Percentage		83%	64%	80%	85%	87%	56%	62%	56%	56%	78%	81%
Avg Max Decline		10.34%	14.33%	12.64%	14.49%	12.24%	15.28%	20.34%	14.01%	9.42%	9.12%	9.39%
Max Decline		23.47%	44.50%	49.69%	39.46%	27.20%	39.30%	65.38%	60.95%	15.58%	17.72%	25.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	14	16	18	15	15	14	4	14	17
Avg Max Increase		-0.29%	-1.18%	-0.70%	-1.67%	-1.18%	-2.66%	-1.87%	-3.37%	-1.64%	-3.21%	-1.43%
Max Increase		-3.70%	-8.90%	-6.35%	-4.82%	-6.52%	-5.94%	-6.87%	-9.55%	-4.71%	-7.51%	-5.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	9	4	10	8	8	15	3	10	6
2021 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes
High	131.68	133.79	140.34	139.09	134.99	142.46	152.84	168.58	194.24	209.81	210.77	220.45
Low	120.66	126.33	131.39	127.38	117.64	115.00	137.92	149.43	162.92	184.92	190.61	203.22
Close/Last	126.01	129.73	138.06	133.67	119.18	140.47	152.51	163.97	189.91	193.75	206.67	213.69