MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		13	22	25	26	30	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		8	12	10	15	16	18	21	16	25	24	18
Exceeded High		7	9	9	11	14	17	18	16	21	21	9
Scenario Percentage		88%	75%	90%	73%	88%	94%	86%	100%	84%	88%	50%
Avg Max Increase		5.34%	6.43%	8.44%	7.71%	11.01%	9.09%	12.61%	14.50%	11.99%	10.31%	6.87%
Max Increase		12.65%	13.21%	17.64%	13.11%	21.01%	21.50%	32.57%	30.89%	32.29%	43.55%	12.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	16	22	18	19	20	21	16	13	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.59%	-1.89%	-1.21%	-2.11%	-1.24%	-1.58%	-4.27%	-2.95%	-3.46%	-2.16%	-2.59%
Max Decline		-7.41%	-3.52%	-6.49%	-7.78%	-8.06%	-8.15%	-17.05%	-13.80%	-13.26%	-9.95%	-6.00%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	10	5	11	6	9	10	10	6	5	4
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		13	22	25	26	30	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		5	10	14	11	14	15	12	17	8	9	15
Penetrated Low		5	7	11	9	12	9	7	9	5	7	12
Scenario Percentage		100%	70%	79%	82%	86%	60%	58%	53%	63%	78%	80%
Avg Max Decline		10.34%	14.33%	12.52%	14.25%	12.28%	15.28%	13.90%	8.80%	9.42%	9.12%	9.66%
Max Decline		23.47%	44.50%	49.69%	39.46%	27.20%	39.30%	36.30%	20.02%	15.58%	17.72%	25.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	19	15	16	17	15	14	13	4	14	18
Avg Max Increase		-0.29%	-1.18%	-0.68%	-1.80%	-0.73%	-2.66%	-1.15%	-3.00%	-1.64%	-3.21%	-1.47%
Max Increase		-3.70%	-8.90%	-6.35%	-4.82%	-5.67%	-5.94%	-6.58%	-9.55%	-4.71%	-7.51%	-5.48%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	7	9	4	10	8	6	17	3	10	6
2018 Contract Condition									Yes
Action									No
High	159.54	167.30	168.43	177.49	186.42	193.38	198.09	206.87	206.24	204.99	214.74	228.04
Low	149.17	153.65	159.87	166.37	170.23	183.57	184.68	195.51	183.09	185.91	193.75	205.47
Close/Last	157.69	167.30	168.43	173.57	185.53	188.52	197.56	203.77	192.33	201.93	212.68	216.05