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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   22 32 34 37 39 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   12 19 18 15 23 20 24 27 20 31 28
Exceeded High   11 17 14 12 15 17 24 22 20 28 21
Scenario Percentage   92% 89% 78% 80% 65% 85% 100% 81% 100% 90% 75%
Avg Max Increase   5.81% 9.22% 8.46% 7.65% 9.91% 12.43% 10.95% 15.38% 16.12% 13.28% 10.83%
Max Increase   13.51% 52.68% 28.27% 17.83% 17.58% 23.63% 29.57% 41.84% 36.66% 36.31% 38.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 19 16 15 23 18 18 20 20 15 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.35% -1.97% -1.16% -1.52% -2.02% -1.77% -1.93% -4.15% -2.70% -3.26% -2.67%
Max Decline   -12.14% -12.86% -3.53% -7.12% -7.76% -8.45% -8.61% -17.33% -14.04% -14.14% -10.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 10 8 5 12 5 8 9 9 5 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes  
Action   Yes       No   Yes No   Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   22 32 34 37 39 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   10 13 16 22 16 20 16 13 20 9 12
Penetrated Low   6 10 10 15 14 17 9 8 13 5 6
Scenario Percentage   60% 77% 63% 68% 88% 85% 56% 62% 65% 56% 50%
Avg Max Decline   11.22% 10.67% 12.46% 12.56% 14.05% 12.02% 15.60% 21.20% 13.80% 10.51% 7.03%
Max Decline   24.60% 23.55% 44.81% 50.50% 40.45% 27.97% 39.48% 68.76% 64.69% 18.26% 11.07%
Avg Days To Max Decline   12 19 17 16 17 17 16 15 13 4 8
Avg Max Increase   -1.30% -1.62% -1.45% -0.94% -1.92% -2.32% -2.87% -2.00% -3.60% -2.05% -0.87%
Max Increase   -5.30% -10.55% -9.12% -6.98% -4.79% -11.90% -6.95% -7.04% -9.52% -4.71% -2.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 9 8 8 2 10 8 7 15 3 2
2025 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes
Action     Yes Yes No   No     Yes   Not Yet
High 238.02 239.08 242.60 232.72 220.31 231.75 222.66 221.64 238.46 235.98 228.73 232.80
Low 228.06 221.97 223.75 215.38 200.43 206.21 210.56 211.18 221.63 217.85 207.19 187.20
Close/Last 229.99 235.73 231.02 219.79 210.69 214.13 211.30 221.22 227.34 221.67 228.05 201.77

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Newsflash

Seasonal sell-offs and weather risks create opportunity. COT report tips the odds. Will you play it safe or go big? https://tinyurl.com/z7ss6f64