MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		17	27	29	32	34	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		8	16	16	14	20	19	20	22	17	26	25
Exceeded High		7	14	13	11	14	16	20	19	17	23	19
Scenario Percentage		88%	88%	81%	79%	70%	84%	100%	86%	100%	88%	76%
Avg Max Increase		4.69%	9.83%	8.59%	7.47%	10.13%	11.90%	9.50%	13.50%	15.88%	13.45%	10.44%
Max Increase		10.27%	52.68%	28.27%	17.83%	17.58%	23.63%	23.34%	32.68%	36.66%	34.21%	38.93%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	16	15	24	18	18	21	22	16	16
Avg Max Decline		-3.26%	-1.25%	-1.27%	-1.60%	-2.13%	-1.75%	-1.80%	-4.48%	-2.98%	-3.67%	-2.75%
Max Decline		-12.14%	-7.48%	-3.53%	-7.12%	-7.76%	-8.45%	-8.61%	-17.33%	-14.04%	-14.14%	-10.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	8	8	5	13	5	9	10	10	5	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	No		No	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		17	27	29	32	34	35	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		9	11	13	18	14	16	15	13	18	9	10
Penetrated Low		5	8	8	13	12	14	9	8	11	5	5
Scenario Percentage		56%	73%	62%	72%	86%	88%	60%	62%	61%	56%	50%
Avg Max Decline		11.34%	9.79%	13.52%	12.66%	15.25%	12.94%	15.60%	21.20%	13.95%	10.51%	6.22%
Max Decline		24.60%	23.55%	44.81%	50.50%	40.45%	27.97%	39.48%	68.76%	64.69%	18.26%	8.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	20	17	17	19	19	16	15	13	4	9
Avg Max Increase		-0.90%	-1.94%	-1.36%	-0.87%	-1.88%	-2.39%	-2.87%	-2.00%	-3.24%	-2.05%	-0.81%
Max Increase		-5.30%	-10.55%	-9.12%	-6.98%	-4.79%	-11.90%	-6.95%	-7.04%	-9.52%	-4.71%	-2.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	11	8	7	3	13	8	7	14	3	2
2020 Contract Condition				Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				No					Yes	Yes	No
High	193.22	182.70	187.24	179.28	185.06	178.94	184.28	192.09	197.65	177.80	156.93	82.72
Low	168.76	161.09	172.79	159.94	161.05	162.64	172.14	173.66	164.29	144.60	51.89	52.51
Close/Last	169.99	180.50	181.12	166.35	168.52	172.33	175.44	186.71	166.10	146.95	65.90	78.37