MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		15	25	27	30	32	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		6	15	15	12	19	18	19	21	16	25	23
Exceeded High		5	14	12	10	13	15	19	18	16	22	18
Scenario Percentage		83%	93%	80%	83%	68%	83%	100%	86%	100%	88%	78%
Avg Max Increase		5.54%	9.83%	8.55%	7.85%	10.02%	11.85%	9.70%	13.25%	15.72%	13.78%	9.09%
Max Increase		10.27%	52.68%	28.27%	17.83%	17.58%	23.63%	23.34%	32.68%	36.66%	36.31%	33.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	17	16	24	18	18	21	22	16	16
Avg Max Decline		-2.78%	-1.25%	-1.15%	-1.75%	-2.29%	-1.79%	-1.76%	-4.70%	-3.03%	-3.84%	-2.60%
Max Decline		-12.14%	-7.48%	-3.53%	-7.12%	-7.76%	-8.45%	-8.61%	-17.33%	-14.04%	-14.14%	-10.36%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	8	9	5	14	6	9	11	11	5	4
2018 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		15	25	27	30	32	33	33	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		9	10	12	18	13	15	14	12	17	8	10
Penetrated Low		5	8	8	13	11	13	9	7	10	5	5
Scenario Percentage		56%	80%	67%	72%	85%	87%	64%	58%	59%	63%	50%
Avg Max Decline		11.34%	9.79%	13.52%	12.66%	14.09%	13.01%	15.60%	14.41%	8.88%	10.51%	6.33%
Max Decline		24.60%	23.55%	44.81%	50.50%	40.45%	27.97%	39.48%	35.67%	18.62%	18.26%	9.21%
Avg Days To Max Decline		11	20	17	17	18	19	16	14	12	4	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.90%	-1.94%	-1.36%	-0.87%	-2.02%	-2.06%	-2.87%	-1.28%	-2.88%	-2.05%	-0.81%
Max Increase		-5.30%	-10.55%	-9.12%	-6.98%	-4.79%	-11.90%	-6.95%	-6.40%	-9.52%	-4.71%	-2.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	11	8	7	3	13	8	6	15	3	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes								Yes
Action		No								No
High	169.05	162.53	168.90	170.04	179.91	188.54	195.90	199.78	208.97	208.10	205.62	215.23
Low	151.00	149.07	153.94	160.32	167.35	171.78	185.92	186.51	196.90	184.34	187.10	194.14
Close/Last	161.14	158.71	168.88	170.04	175.45	187.68	190.79	199.19	205.76	193.66	202.50	213.08