MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for June RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2015
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		11	21	23	26	28	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Higher		5	14	12	10	16	16	17	20	15	23	20
Exceeded High		5	13	10	8	11	13	17	18	15	20	15
Scenario Percentage		100%	93%	83%	80%	69%	81%	100%	90%	100%	87%	75%
Avg Max Increase		5.54%	10.08%	7.85%	7.64%	10.02%	12.13%	10.43%	13.25%	16.44%	13.67%	10.00%
Max Increase		10.27%	52.68%	28.27%	17.83%	17.58%	23.63%	23.34%	32.68%	36.66%	36.31%	33.03%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	15	16	23	19	19	21	21	15	14
Avg Max Decline		-2.78%	-0.95%	-0.92%	-1.85%	-1.91%	-1.87%	-1.77%	-4.70%	-2.29%	-3.71%	-1.91%
Max Decline		-12.14%	-7.48%	-3.53%	-7.12%	-5.04%	-8.45%	-8.61%	-17.33%	-7.19%	-14.14%	-9.92%
Avg Days to Max Decline		5	8	10	5	15	5	9	11	10	6	4
2014 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes		Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr
Tested Years		11	21	23	26	28	29	29	29	29	29	29
Closed Lower		6	7	11	16	12	13	12	9	14	6	9
Penetrated Low		3	5	7	11	10	11	7	5	9	4	4
Scenario Percentage		50%	71%	64%	69%	83%	85%	58%	56%	64%	67%	44%
Avg Max Decline		6.82%	10.58%	13.15%	12.38%	12.62%	11.22%	14.92%	14.91%	8.44%	9.50%	6.19%
Max Decline		10.51%	23.55%	44.81%	50.50%	40.45%	27.97%	39.48%	35.67%	18.62%	18.26%	8.67%
Avg Days To Max Decline		10	20	18	17	17	19	18	16	10	4	10
Avg Max Increase		-1.11%	-3.15%	-1.55%	-0.28%	-2.18%	-1.81%	-3.10%	-1.40%	-3.17%	-1.48%	-0.90%
Max Increase		-5.30%	-10.55%	-9.12%	-3.80%	-4.79%	-11.90%	-6.95%	-6.40%	-9.52%	-4.71%	-2.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	16	9	8	3	15	10	6	12	1	3
2014 Contract Condition					Yes				Yes		Yes
Action					Yes				No		Yes
High	279.79	281.76	285.78	296.36	292.09	283.82	288.78	297.31	293.43	298.75	301.08	306.10
Low	262.70	265.00	270.91	276.64	270.91	269.58	268.73	281.46	276.33	276.61	282.36	281.01
Close/Last	267.23	268.75	285.21	290.48	273.44	276.70	284.53	292.54	279.24	293.81	290.35	296.44