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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jul 11, 2025
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   20 31 33 35 38 39 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   11 19 19 18 15 22 20 23 26 21 30
Exceeded High   9 18 17 14 13 14 17 23 22 21 23
Scenario Percentage   82% 95% 89% 78% 87% 64% 85% 100% 85% 100% 77%
Avg Max Increase   8.05% 7.87% 9.38% 8.28% 7.93% 9.95% 13.25% 12.05% 15.17% 17.79% 9.60%
Max Increase   14.52% 26.43% 52.64% 28.22% 17.98% 17.01% 24.88% 30.79% 44.10% 47.38% 22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 18 18 15 15 23 17 18 19 18 18
Avg Max Decline   -0.74% -2.16% -2.02% -1.19% -1.59% -1.47% -1.70% -2.10% -4.13% -3.54% -2.46%
Max Decline   -3.70% -11.73% -12.56% -3.56% -7.87% -5.12% -8.63% -9.31% -17.17% -14.16% -8.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 11 9 8 5 15 5 8 9 9 3
2025 Contract Condition     Yes       Yes   Yes Yes   Yes
Action     Yes       No   Yes No   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   20 31 33 35 38 39 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   9 12 14 17 22 17 20 17 14 19 10
Penetrated Low   6 8 10 10 16 15 18 10 9 13 6
Scenario Percentage   67% 67% 71% 59% 73% 88% 90% 59% 64% 68% 60%
Avg Max Decline   7.57% 10.07% 11.06% 13.08% 12.36% 14.09% 11.89% 14.96% 19.69% 14.12% 8.45%
Max Decline   13.48% 24.71% 23.72% 45.12% 51.46% 41.40% 28.66% 40.25% 72.41% 68.82% 14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 17 19 16 16 17 16 16 14 14 13
Avg Max Increase   -0.13% -2.71% -1.36% -1.24% -0.80% -1.99% -2.30% -3.39% -1.71% -4.42% -2.74%
Max Increase   -1.90% -7.88% -10.59% -6.70% -6.82% -5.02% -12.19% -9.03% -7.53% -10.04% -5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 11 9 8 9 2 9 13 7 17 4
2025 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes Yes No   Yes     Yes  
High 245.47 237.02 240.02 243.74 233.94 221.22 232.72 223.91 223.35 240.34 237.57 229.76
Low 237.92 229.98 223.27 225.50 216.67 201.28 207.48 211.77 211.47 223.31 218.80 207.76
Close/Last 240.02 231.01 237.26 232.52 221.03 211.29 215.37 212.24 222.88 228.68 222.66 229.07

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Newsflash

Seasonal sell-offs and weather risks create opportunity. COT report tips the odds. Will you play it safe or go big? https://tinyurl.com/z7ss6f64