MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		19	30	32	34	37	38	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		11	18	19	18	15	21	20	22	25	21	29
Exceeded High		9	17	17	14	13	14	17	22	22	21	22
Scenario Percentage		82%	94%	89%	78%	87%	67%	85%	100%	88%	100%	76%
Avg Max Increase		8.05%	8.18%	9.38%	8.28%	7.93%	9.95%	13.25%	12.24%	15.17%	17.79%	9.93%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	30.79%	44.10%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	18	18	15	15	23	17	18	19	18	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.74%	-2.29%	-2.02%	-1.19%	-1.59%	-1.47%	-1.70%	-2.21%	-4.13%	-3.54%	-2.55%
Max Decline		-3.70%	-11.73%	-12.56%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	12	9	8	5	15	5	8	9	9	3
2024 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes						Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		19	30	32	34	37	38	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		8	12	13	16	21	17	19	17	14	18	10
Penetrated Low		5	8	9	9	16	15	17	10	9	12	6
Scenario Percentage		63%	67%	69%	56%	76%	88%	89%	59%	64%	67%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.42%	10.07%	10.80%	13.54%	12.36%	14.09%	12.57%	14.96%	19.69%	13.99%	8.45%
Max Decline		13.48%	24.71%	23.72%	45.12%	51.46%	41.40%	28.66%	40.25%	72.41%	68.82%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	20	17	16	17	17	16	14	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.55%	-2.71%	-1.44%	-1.37%	-0.80%	-1.99%	-2.34%	-3.39%	-1.71%	-4.35%	-2.74%
Max Increase		-1.90%	-7.88%	-10.59%	-6.70%	-6.82%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-7.53%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	11	10	8	9	2	9	13	7	16	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	248.72	230.16	229.39	254.79	258.72	271.71	255.56	247.70	242.89	256.05	262.19	275.49
Low	226.88	213.54	216.13	223.47	247.51	251.11	233.68	228.82	220.46	225.12	235.93	250.42
Close/Last	230.85	216.60	227.84	254.79	254.65	251.28	242.87	238.57	231.59	246.49	257.11	272.06