MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Oct 06, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		18	29	31	33	36	37	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		11	17	18	18	15	21	20	22	24	20	28
Exceeded High		9	16	16	14	13	14	17	22	21	20	20
Scenario Percentage		82%	94%	89%	78%	87%	67%	85%	100%	88%	100%	71%
Avg Max Increase		8.05%	7.84%	9.56%	8.28%	7.93%	9.95%	13.25%	12.24%	15.33%	17.63%	10.16%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	30.79%	44.10%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	18	15	15	23	17	18	19	18	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.74%	-2.31%	-1.96%	-1.19%	-1.59%	-1.47%	-1.70%	-2.21%	-4.13%	-3.64%	-2.30%
Max Decline		-3.70%	-11.73%	-12.56%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	13	9	8	5	15	5	8	9	9	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes					Yes		Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		18	29	31	33	36	37	38	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		7	12	13	15	20	16	18	16	14	18	10
Penetrated Low		5	8	9	8	15	14	16	10	9	12	6
Scenario Percentage		71%	67%	69%	53%	75%	88%	89%	63%	64%	67%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.42%	10.07%	10.80%	14.20%	12.59%	14.44%	12.88%	14.96%	19.69%	13.99%	8.44%
Max Decline		13.48%	24.71%	23.72%	45.12%	51.46%	41.40%	28.66%	40.25%	72.41%	68.82%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	17	20	19	16	17	18	16	14	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.55%	-2.71%	-1.44%	-0.70%	-0.74%	-1.99%	-2.44%	-3.39%	-1.71%	-4.35%	-2.74%
Max Increase		-1.90%	-7.88%	-10.59%	-3.35%	-6.82%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-7.53%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	11	10	7	8	2	10	13	7	16	4
2023 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes			Yes
High	284.71	296.74	314.32	287.70	274.10	260.10	270.00	279.98	266.07	283.43	274.03	279.95
Low	262.71	272.75	278.10	248.70	249.63	233.43	245.30	242.05	225.01	241.32	245.79	236.26
Close/Last	272.11	286.78	279.18	275.48	251.66	239.23	260.54	258.18	262.10	271.56	263.20	268.10