MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		17	28	30	32	35	36	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		10	17	18	18	15	20	20	21	23	20	27
Exceeded High		8	16	16	14	13	13	17	21	21	20	19
Scenario Percentage		80%	94%	89%	78%	87%	65%	85%	100%	91%	100%	70%
Avg Max Increase		7.86%	7.84%	9.56%	8.28%	7.93%	10.14%	13.25%	12.44%	15.33%	17.91%	10.57%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	30.79%	44.10%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	18	15	15	24	17	18	19	18	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.95%	-2.31%	-1.96%	-1.19%	-1.59%	-1.69%	-1.70%	-1.94%	-4.13%	-3.64%	-2.46%
Max Decline		-3.70%	-11.73%	-12.56%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.55%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	13	9	8	5	16	5	8	9	9	3
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		17	28	30	32	35	36	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		7	11	12	14	19	16	17	16	14	17	10
Penetrated Low		5	7	8	7	15	14	15	10	9	11	6
Scenario Percentage		71%	64%	67%	50%	79%	88%	88%	63%	64%	65%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.42%	9.95%	10.24%	15.19%	12.59%	14.44%	12.88%	14.96%	19.69%	14.33%	8.45%
Max Decline		13.48%	24.71%	23.72%	45.12%	51.46%	41.40%	28.66%	40.25%	72.41%	68.82%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	18	20	18	16	17	18	16	14	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.55%	-2.66%	-1.68%	-0.32%	-0.74%	-1.99%	-2.54%	-3.39%	-1.71%	-4.16%	-2.74%
Max Increase		-1.90%	-7.88%	-10.59%	-2.70%	-6.82%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-7.53%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	10	6	8	2	11	13	7	17	4
2022 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes
Action					No			Yes
High	197.97	207.86	217.61	220.50	218.85	227.10	247.70	242.31	238.95	266.50	303.98	380.75
Low	183.50	194.51	207.10	198.50	192.30	208.90	225.00	202.50	199.50	231.12	260.24	286.33
Close/Last	195.09	206.13	214.49	219.93	212.39	225.41	238.57	205.70	232.41	264.22	290.89	315.09