MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		16	27	29	31	34	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		9	16	17	18	14	19	20	20	22	19	26
Exceeded High		7	15	15	14	12	13	17	20	20	19	20
Scenario Percentage		78%	94%	88%	78%	86%	68%	85%	100%	91%	100%	77%
Avg Max Increase		7.98%	8.18%	9.98%	8.28%	7.76%	10.14%	13.25%	11.52%	13.90%	17.40%	10.28%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	29.01%	31.39%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	18	18	15	15	24	17	18	19	19	20
Avg Max Decline		-0.56%	-1.97%	-1.26%	-1.19%	-1.71%	-1.69%	-1.70%	-2.00%	-4.26%	-3.86%	-2.77%
Max Decline		-3.30%	-11.73%	-7.94%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	12	8	8	5	16	5	9	10	9	3
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		16	27	29	31	34	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		7	11	12	13	19	16	16	16	14	17	10
Penetrated Low		5	7	8	7	15	14	14	10	9	11	6
Scenario Percentage		71%	64%	67%	54%	79%	88%	88%	63%	64%	65%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.42%	9.95%	10.24%	15.19%	12.59%	14.44%	13.59%	14.96%	19.69%	14.33%	8.45%
Max Decline		13.48%	24.71%	23.72%	45.12%	51.46%	41.40%	28.66%	40.25%	72.41%	68.82%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	18	20	18	16	17	19	16	14	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.55%	-2.66%	-1.68%	-0.32%	-0.74%	-1.99%	-2.43%	-3.39%	-1.71%	-4.16%	-2.74%
Max Increase		-1.90%	-7.88%	-10.59%	-2.70%	-6.82%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-7.53%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	10	6	8	2	11	13	7	17	4
2021 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes
Action						Yes	Yes
High	108.00	120.96	134.70	134.62	141.20	140.70	135.16	143.35	153.83	171.21	198.11	215.48
Low	89.58	98.04	119.53	125.97	129.43	126.79	116.69	114.23	138.42	149.77	164.92	186.97
Close/Last	100.36	120.96	126.61	129.67	138.24	134.16	118.58	140.76	153.56	165.77	194.17	195.97