MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Nov 09, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		15	26	28	30	33	34	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Higher		8	15	16	17	14	19	19	19	21	18	25
Exceeded High		6	14	14	14	12	13	16	19	19	18	20
Scenario Percentage		75%	93%	88%	82%	86%	68%	84%	100%	90%	100%	80%
Avg Max Increase		7.42%	7.94%	10.05%	8.28%	7.76%	10.14%	12.72%	10.60%	13.05%	17.76%	10.28%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	26.92%	31.39%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	17	15	15	24	17	17	20	19	20
Avg Max Decline		-0.45%	-2.07%	-1.33%	-1.19%	-1.71%	-1.69%	-1.70%	-1.98%	-4.45%	-3.94%	-2.77%
Max Decline		-3.30%	-11.73%	-7.94%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	13	8	8	5	16	5	9	10	10	3
2020 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		15	26	28	30	33	34	35	35	35	35	35
Closed Lower		7	11	12	13	18	15	16	16	14	17	10
Penetrated Low		5	7	8	7	14	13	14	10	9	11	6
Scenario Percentage		71%	64%	67%	54%	78%	87%	88%	63%	64%	65%	60%
Avg Max Decline		8.42%	9.95%	10.24%	15.19%	12.43%	15.27%	13.59%	14.96%	19.69%	14.33%	8.45%
Max Decline		13.48%	24.71%	23.72%	45.12%	51.46%	41.40%	28.66%	40.25%	72.41%	68.82%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		19	18	20	18	17	19	19	16	14	14	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.55%	-2.66%	-1.68%	-0.32%	-0.74%	-1.95%	-2.43%	-3.39%	-1.71%	-4.16%	-2.74%
Max Increase		-1.90%	-7.88%	-10.59%	-2.70%	-6.82%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-7.53%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		5	12	10	6	8	2	11	13	7	17	4
2020 Contract Condition		Yes			Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes			No					Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	195.67	193.50	183.20	187.46	180.09	185.90	180.36	186.10	193.88	199.24	179.46	158.11
Low	185.96	169.50	161.91	173.74	160.62	161.60	163.61	174.50	174.85	164.60	145.18	46.05
Close/Last	193.42	170.43	181.29	182.02	167.06	169.66	174.03	176.87	188.06	166.89	147.71	59.27