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ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 14 | 25 | 27 | 29 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
Closed Higher | 8 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 21 | 18 | 25 | |
Exceeded High | 6 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 18 | 20 | |
Scenario Percentage | 75% | 93% | 93% | 82% | 85% | 67% | 83% | 100% | 90% | 100% | 80% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.42% | 8.29% | 10.05% | 8.28% | 7.59% | 10.04% | 12.73% | 10.86% | 13.05% | 17.76% | 10.28% | |
Max Increase | 14.52% | 26.43% | 52.64% | 28.22% | 17.98% | 17.01% | 24.88% | 26.92% | 31.39% | 47.38% | 22.82% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 24 | 17 | 18 | 20 | 19 | 20 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.45% | -2.07% | -1.33% | -1.19% | -1.54% | -1.85% | -1.74% | -1.94% | -4.45% | -3.94% | -2.77% | |
Max Decline | -3.30% | -11.73% | -7.94% | -3.56% | -7.87% | -5.12% | -8.63% | -9.31% | -17.17% | -14.16% | -8.74% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 2 | 14 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 17 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 3 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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