MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		10	21	23	25	28	29	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		6	13	14	13	10	16	16	16	19	17	22
Exceeded High		5	12	13	11	8	11	13	16	18	17	17
Scenario Percentage		83%	92%	93%	85%	80%	69%	81%	100%	95%	100%	77%
Avg Max Increase		8.26%	8.89%	10.30%	7.52%	7.81%	10.40%	13.16%	11.77%	12.65%	17.50%	10.26%
Max Increase		14.52%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	26.92%	31.39%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	17	17	15	16	24	18	18	19	19	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.50%	-1.69%	-1.05%	-0.85%	-1.74%	-1.93%	-1.76%	-1.96%	-4.68%	-4.04%	-2.64%
Max Decline		-3.30%	-11.73%	-7.94%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-8.63%	-9.31%	-17.17%	-14.16%	-8.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline		2	14	8	10	6	15	5	10	10	10	3
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes								Yes
Action		Yes	No								Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		10	21	23	25	28	29	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		4	8	9	12	17	13	14	14	11	13	8
Penetrated Low		2	5	6	7	13	11	12	9	6	9	5
Scenario Percentage		50%	63%	67%	58%	76%	85%	86%	64%	55%	69%	63%
Avg Max Decline		8.09%	6.67%	10.73%	15.19%	12.83%	14.77%	13.10%	13.90%	12.92%	8.50%	8.20%
Max Decline		8.21%	11.29%	23.72%	45.12%	51.46%	41.40%	28.66%	40.25%	34.05%	17.21%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline		22	20	22	18	17	18	18	16	14	12	10
Avg Max Increase		-0.14%	-3.72%	-2.60%	-0.32%	-0.27%	-2.02%	-1.94%	-3.36%	-0.97%	-4.21%	-2.48%
Max Increase		-1.37%	-7.88%	-10.59%	-2.70%	-3.05%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-6.84%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase		7	16	13	6	8	3	13	14	5	16	2
2015 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet
High	280.10	281.68	293.52	289.92	280.40	275.64	263.02	239.48	211.10	175.96	197.95	197.11
Low	269.56	272.57	276.24	279.47	270.99	258.74	231.50	203.98	169.59	152.37	167.71	169.13
Close/Last	275.34	278.55	289.12	280.79	275.70	259.55	238.45	204.86	174.21	171.42	197.04	177.00