MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		3	14	16	18	21	22	23	23	23	23	23
Closed Higher		3	9	9	11	9	12	11	12	15	11	17
Exceeded High		2	9	9	10	7	8	8	12	14	11	14
Scenario Percentage		67%	100%	100%	91%	78%	67%	73%	100%	93%	100%	82%
Avg Max Increase		6.88%	9.51%	12.21%	8.06%	7.97%	11.03%	15.53%	10.96%	12.63%	21.98%	11.16%
Max Increase		6.99%	26.43%	52.64%	28.22%	17.98%	17.01%	24.88%	26.92%	31.39%	47.38%	22.82%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	18	18	15	17	24	14	17	18	19	20
Avg Max Decline		-0.05%	-0.81%	-1.72%	-0.82%	-1.83%	-1.79%	-0.78%	-2.03%	-4.50%	-3.14%	-3.08%
Max Decline		-0.19%	-6.34%	-7.94%	-3.56%	-7.87%	-5.12%	-2.64%	-9.31%	-14.65%	-8.87%	-8.74%
Avg Days to Max Decline		1	16	9	10	4	17	3	10	11	9	4
2008 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		3	14	16	18	21	22	23	23	23	23	23
Closed Lower			5	7	7	11	10	12	11	8	12	6
Penetrated Low			3	4	3	8	8	10	7	4	8	4
Scenario Percentage			60%	57%	43%	73%	80%	83%	64%	50%	67%	67%
Avg Max Decline			6.47%	8.20%	7.81%	10.41%	11.27%	10.29%	14.58%	18.22%	8.03%	9.46%
Max Decline			11.29%	11.42%	16.86%	19.23%	19.21%	25.17%	40.25%	34.05%	17.21%	14.32%
Avg Days To Max Decline			22	22	16	20	18	18	19	19	11	12
Avg Max Increase			-1.83%	-3.77%	-0.91%	0.04%	-2.15%	-2.41%	-3.43%	0.35%	-4.06%	-3.11%
Max Increase			-3.67%	-10.59%	-2.70%	-2.95%	-5.02%	-12.19%	-9.03%	-1.66%	-10.04%	-5.59%
Avg Days to Max Increase			9	19	6	9	3	15	17	6	17	2
2008 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes		Yes		Yes
Action					No			Yes		No		Not Yet
High	204.48	211.45	215.56	220.84	215.52	226.33	250.81	262.75	267.60	272.58	276.24	276.72
Low	195.31	198.19	206.60	212.35	200.00	209.25	217.37	242.96	240.25	239.17	239.78	249.35
Close/Last	202.64	206.42	215.18	217.24	209.40	222.71	250.81	242.96	263.73	252.37	268.54	262.71