MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 21, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		15	25	28	31	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		12	12	17	21	21	16	18	20	21	22	18
Exceeded High		10	9	16	17	17	14	12	17	21	18	17
Scenario Percentage		83%	75%	94%	81%	81%	88%	67%	85%	100%	82%	94%
Avg Max Increase		12.73%	9.35%	8.56%	10.21%	8.04%	7.46%	9.89%	13.61%	11.54%	15.19%	10.23%
Max Increase		35.19%	14.66%	27.24%	54.45%	28.85%	18.46%	17.20%	27.12%	33.52%	31.18%	24.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		16	18	21	18	15	16	23	18	17	19	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.91%	-2.15%	-2.09%	-1.11%	-1.44%	-2.36%	-2.05%	-1.89%	-1.91%	-4.56%	-3.13%
Max Decline		-5.74%	-11.05%	-11.95%	-7.78%	-8.21%	-9.33%	-5.20%	-8.51%	-9.66%	-17.22%	-10.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	3	11	8	8	5	15	5	9	9	5
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		15	25	28	31	35	35	36	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		3	13	11	10	14	18	17	16	15	14	18
Penetrated Low		2	7	7	7	9	14	14	14	9	9	11
Scenario Percentage		67%	54%	64%	70%	64%	78%	82%	88%	60%	64%	61%
Avg Max Decline		14.08%	7.86%	10.22%	10.20%	13.83%	12.76%	15.01%	14.16%	16.14%	20.85%	12.82%
Max Decline		19.72%	13.84%	25.39%	23.96%	45.36%	51.97%	42.72%	29.87%	42.20%	77.42%	74.64%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	17	17	19	16	15	16	19	17	11	14
Avg Max Increase		-1.97%	-0.51%	-2.51%	-1.76%	-1.35%	-0.86%	-2.09%	-2.80%	-3.63%	-1.83%	-2.17%
Max Increase		-3.84%	-1.89%	-8.35%	-11.01%	-10.38%	-6.77%	-6.20%	-12.42%	-11.22%	-8.27%	-7.41%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	5	11	12	9	6	2	12	13	6	5
2021 Contract Condition							Yes	Yes
Action							Yes	Yes
High	152.57	106.42	119.84	133.35	134.30	140.45	139.13	133.82	142.33	153.02	171.35	198.94
Low	88.35	89.90	97.17	118.97	124.99	129.26	124.98	114.77	111.84	136.16	148.64	164.20
Close/Last	97.84	98.64	119.84	125.69	128.37	136.74	132.74	116.83	139.37	152.83	165.42	195.05