MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		13	23	26	29	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		10	11	15	19	20	15	17	18	19	21	17
Exceeded High		9	8	14	16	17	13	11	15	19	16	15
Scenario Percentage		90%	73%	93%	84%	85%	87%	65%	83%	100%	76%	88%
Avg Max Increase		10.24%	9.01%	8.69%	10.26%	8.04%	7.25%	9.75%	13.06%	10.85%	14.21%	10.03%
Max Increase		28.83%	14.66%	27.24%	54.45%	28.85%	18.46%	17.20%	27.12%	33.52%	30.03%	24.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	18	21	17	15	15	23	18	18	15	18
Avg Max Decline		-0.84%	-2.33%	-2.20%	-1.22%	-1.44%	-2.26%	-2.24%	-1.91%	-1.81%	-3.33%	-2.68%
Max Decline		-5.74%	-11.05%	-11.95%	-7.78%	-8.21%	-9.33%	-5.20%	-8.51%	-9.66%	-17.22%	-9.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	3	13	8	8	5	16	6	9	5	5
2019 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		13	23	26	29	33	33	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		3	12	11	10	13	17	16	16	15	13	17
Penetrated Low		2	6	7	7	9	13	13	14	9	8	10
Scenario Percentage		67%	50%	64%	70%	69%	76%	81%	88%	60%	62%	59%
Avg Max Decline		14.08%	8.28%	10.22%	10.20%	13.83%	12.53%	15.83%	14.16%	16.14%	13.77%	6.64%
Max Decline		19.72%	13.84%	25.39%	23.96%	45.36%	51.97%	42.72%	29.87%	42.20%	36.09%	13.98%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	19	17	19	16	16	18	19	17	10	13
Avg Max Increase		-1.97%	-0.45%	-2.51%	-1.76%	-1.35%	-0.86%	-2.06%	-2.80%	-3.63%	-1.03%	-1.64%
Max Increase		-3.84%	-1.89%	-8.35%	-11.01%	-10.38%	-6.77%	-6.20%	-12.42%	-11.22%	-7.10%	-5.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase		12	5	11	12	9	5	2	12	13	4	6
2019 Contract Condition					Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					No			Yes	Yes	No
High	197.08	206.19	221.16	215.17	216.88	216.96	228.54	234.85	199.02	172.78	166.93	178.00
Low	182.60	190.35	199.72	200.38	200.39	201.51	209.82	197.90	158.08	142.27	146.13	157.65
Close/Last	195.39	204.39	213.77	214.76	209.97	215.70	227.18	198.37	161.95	149.15	158.24	175.23