MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2018
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		11	21	24	27	31	31	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Higher		9	10	14	18	18	13	16	17	18	19	16
Exceeded High		8	8	13	15	15	11	10	14	18	16	15
Scenario Percentage		89%	80%	93%	83%	83%	85%	63%	82%	100%	84%	94%
Avg Max Increase		10.49%	9.01%	9.28%	10.46%	7.75%	7.14%	10.15%	13.34%	11.15%	13.57%	9.97%
Max Increase		28.83%	14.66%	27.24%	54.45%	28.85%	18.46%	17.20%	27.12%	33.52%	30.03%	24.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	18	20	17	15	17	23	17	17	18	19
Avg Max Decline		-0.66%	-2.33%	-1.85%	-0.95%	-1.33%	-2.46%	-2.33%	-1.83%	-1.84%	-5.06%	-3.25%
Max Decline		-5.74%	-11.05%	-11.95%	-7.78%	-8.21%	-9.33%	-5.20%	-8.51%	-9.66%	-17.22%	-10.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		4	3	12	8	9	6	14	5	9	10	5
2017 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		11	21	24	27	31	31	32	32	32	32	32
Closed Lower		2	11	10	9	13	17	15	15	14	13	16
Penetrated Low		1	5	7	7	9	13	12	13	9	8	10
Scenario Percentage		50%	45%	70%	78%	69%	76%	80%	87%	64%	62%	63%
Avg Max Decline		19.72%	8.33%	10.22%	10.20%	13.83%	12.53%	14.80%	14.31%	16.14%	13.77%	6.64%
Max Decline		19.72%	13.84%	25.39%	23.96%	45.36%	51.97%	42.72%	29.87%	42.20%	36.09%	13.98%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	19	17	19	16	16	17	19	17	10	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.10%	-0.52%	-2.51%	-1.76%	-1.35%	-0.86%	-2.21%	-2.50%	-3.63%	-1.03%	-1.64%
Max Increase		-0.10%	-1.89%	-8.35%	-11.01%	-10.38%	-6.77%	-6.20%	-12.42%	-11.22%	-7.10%	-5.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	6	11	12	9	5	3	13	13	4	6
2017 Contract Condition				Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
Action				Yes	Yes			Yes			Yes	Yes
High	153.05	161.20	166.67	169.97	164.41	163.10	164.65	172.89	172.55	187.84	189.78	181.00
Low	139.53	141.11	151.23	157.22	142.63	142.42	148.12	163.23	151.07	170.42	174.42	167.99
Close/Last	147.93	160.44	164.53	161.54	146.41	153.28	164.45	163.83	171.05	186.10	176.95	172.94