MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2016
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		9	19	22	25	29	29	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Higher		7	9	14	18	16	12	15	16	17	19	16
Exceeded High		6	7	13	15	14	10	10	13	17	16	15
Scenario Percentage		86%	78%	93%	83%	88%	83%	67%	81%	100%	84%	94%
Avg Max Increase		12.72%	9.82%	9.28%	10.46%	7.39%	7.34%	10.15%	13.52%	11.69%	13.57%	9.97%
Max Increase		28.83%	14.66%	27.24%	54.45%	28.85%	18.46%	17.20%	27.12%	33.52%	30.03%	24.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	20	17	14	17	23	18	18	18	19
Avg Max Decline		0.16%	-2.63%	-1.85%	-0.95%	-1.19%	-2.63%	-2.33%	-1.94%	-1.81%	-5.06%	-3.25%
Max Decline		-2.21%	-11.05%	-11.95%	-7.78%	-8.21%	-9.33%	-5.20%	-8.51%	-9.66%	-17.22%	-10.79%
Avg Days to Max Decline		3	3	12	8	9	6	14	6	10	10	5
2015 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes								Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No								Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb
Tested Years		9	19	22	25	29	29	30	30	30	30	30
Closed Lower		2	10	8	7	13	16	14	14	13	11	14
Penetrated Low		1	4	5	5	9	12	11	12	8	6	9
Scenario Percentage		50%	40%	63%	71%	69%	75%	79%	86%	62%	55%	64%
Avg Max Decline		19.72%	6.95%	6.86%	10.67%	13.83%	12.94%	15.43%	13.75%	14.97%	13.65%	6.30%
Max Decline		19.72%	9.25%	10.72%	23.96%	45.36%	51.97%	42.72%	29.87%	42.20%	36.09%	13.98%
Avg Days To Max Decline		21	17	19	21	16	16	17	18	18	10	13
Avg Max Increase		-0.10%	-0.18%	-3.34%	-2.77%	-1.35%	-0.37%	-2.00%	-2.36%	-3.60%	-1.01%	-1.85%
Max Increase		-0.10%	-1.39%	-8.35%	-11.01%	-10.38%	-3.44%	-6.20%	-12.42%	-11.22%	-7.10%	-5.94%
Avg Days to Max Increase		1	5	15	16	9	5	3	14	15	4	6
2015 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	No
High	279.31	280.89	282.60	294.64	291.02	280.76	275.47	262.87	238.58	210.04	173.99	198.93
Low	268.76	270.06	273.27	276.77	280.00	270.92	258.46	230.04	203.40	167.48	149.65	166.26
Close/Last	275.40	276.14	279.34	290.32	280.96	276.03	259.27	237.73	204.16	172.41	169.85	197.79