MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		19	28	31	32	35	36	37	38	38	38	38
Closed Higher		13	20	18	18	23	18	19	19	17	24	24
Exceeded High		12	17	14	17	20	15	18	11	14	24	15
Scenario Percentage		92%	85%	78%	94%	87%	83%	95%	58%	82%	100%	63%
Avg Max Increase		10.73%	9.66%	8.90%	8.98%	9.99%	9.32%	7.52%	11.12%	13.74%	12.33%	11.35%
Max Increase		24.62%	32.02%	15.22%	26.75%	57.53%	31.03%	20.25%	18.41%	28.04%	34.52%	22.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	16	20	19	18	13	13	23	18	17	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.33%	-1.51%	-2.35%	-2.51%	-1.87%	-1.78%	-2.07%	-2.02%	-3.35%	-2.97%	-2.26%
Max Decline		-5.80%	-7.25%	-9.40%	-13.08%	-13.67%	-10.27%	-10.51%	-5.76%	-12.03%	-11.73%	-13.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	6	11	11	10	6	4	16	5	10	2
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes		Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		19	28	31	32	35	36	37	38	38	38	38
Closed Lower		5	8	13	14	12	18	18	19	21	14	14
Penetrated Low		1	5	8	10	8	11	13	16	16	7	9
Scenario Percentage		20%	63%	62%	71%	67%	61%	72%	84%	76%	50%	64%
Avg Max Decline		9.43%	8.90%	8.69%	10.74%	12.23%	13.05%	14.42%	14.90%	14.67%	21.20%	10.96%
Max Decline		9.43%	21.39%	16.48%	30.04%	25.77%	48.34%	55.77%	45.55%	32.34%	43.15%	29.14%
Avg Days To Max Decline		4	17	15	17	18	19	15	17	17	16	14
Avg Max Increase		-5.34%	-3.06%	-0.51%	-2.30%	-2.23%	-2.10%	-1.02%	-2.30%	-3.05%	-4.58%	-2.45%
Max Increase		-5.34%	-6.37%	-2.09%	-8.82%	-11.97%	-11.93%	-7.32%	-6.63%	-10.96%	-17.88%	-12.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	9	4	9	12	13	5	2	10	8	4
2023 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Yes
High	246.92	277.06	275.25	288.50	302.63	275.62	258.38	244.05	255.12	266.73	251.75	271.86
Low	219.43	233.30	249.72	255.90	263.90	233.50	232.41	215.46	226.99	223.07	204.83	224.39
Close/Last	235.76	248.36	261.47	276.95	264.79	260.52	234.25	222.60	244.42	239.63	247.83	256.68