MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		14	23	26	27	30	31	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Higher		9	16	14	14	20	16	16	16	15	20	20
Exceeded High		8	14	11	13	18	14	15	9	12	20	12
Scenario Percentage		89%	88%	79%	93%	90%	88%	94%	56%	80%	100%	60%
Avg Max Increase		9.48%	8.98%	8.34%	9.99%	10.28%	9.31%	7.18%	11.18%	12.61%	10.72%	9.55%
Max Increase		24.62%	32.02%	15.22%	26.75%	57.53%	31.03%	20.25%	18.41%	23.07%	31.11%	16.89%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	15	19	19	17	14	12	25	18	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-1.64%	-1.46%	-2.46%	-2.22%	-1.36%	-1.70%	-2.15%	-2.39%	-3.51%	-2.72%	-2.60%
Max Decline		-5.80%	-7.25%	-9.40%	-13.08%	-8.58%	-10.27%	-10.51%	-5.76%	-12.03%	-11.73%	-13.95%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	7	9	10	10	6	5	19	6	11	3
2018 Contract Condition				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action				Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan
Tested Years		14	23	26	27	30	31	32	33	33	33	33
Closed Lower		4	7	12	13	10	15	16	17	18	13	13
Penetrated Low		1	5	7	9	7	10	12	14	13	7	8
Scenario Percentage		25%	71%	58%	69%	70%	67%	75%	82%	72%	54%	62%
Avg Max Decline		9.43%	8.90%	9.05%	10.58%	11.51%	13.55%	14.24%	14.47%	15.70%	21.20%	11.26%
Max Decline		9.43%	21.39%	16.48%	30.04%	25.77%	48.34%	55.77%	45.55%	32.34%	43.15%	29.14%
Avg Days To Max Decline		4	17	17	15	17	18	16	17	18	16	13
Avg Max Increase		-5.34%	-3.06%	-0.43%	-2.10%	-2.67%	-1.89%	-0.92%	-2.42%	-2.70%	-4.58%	-1.23%
Max Increase		-5.34%	-6.37%	-2.09%	-8.82%	-11.97%	-11.93%	-7.32%	-6.63%	-10.96%	-17.88%	-7.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	9	4	10	13	13	5	2	12	8	2
2018 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes		No
High	157.97	153.02	156.51	150.47	144.59	152.04	153.34	165.63	173.80	181.99	182.91	193.93
Low	151.00	139.92	142.32	134.56	129.97	135.98	142.92	150.00	155.42	171.56	168.44	178.09
Close/Last	153.77	148.57	143.08	143.45	140.71	151.92	153.28	160.24	172.60	175.70	181.33	189.37