MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		15	27	28	31	34	35	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		8	19	20	17	19	23	19	21	18	17	23
Exceeded High		8	18	17	13	18	20	16	18	11	14	22
Scenario Percentage		100%	95%	85%	76%	95%	87%	84%	86%	61%	82%	96%
Avg Max Increase		8.38%	10.06%	9.01%	9.04%	9.06%	10.49%	9.41%	7.95%	11.29%	15.17%	9.03%
Max Increase		12.13%	25.45%	33.12%	15.86%	27.86%	60.66%	32.50%	20.66%	20.48%	30.09%	18.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		25	18	17	21	18	18	16	15	24	17	16
Avg Max Decline		-3.76%	-2.26%	-1.79%	-2.72%	-2.60%	-2.02%	-2.89%	-2.59%	-2.27%	-3.60%	-1.70%
Max Decline		-13.18%	-8.60%	-7.88%	-9.89%	-13.16%	-14.00%	-10.51%	-10.64%	-6.43%	-12.74%	-7.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	8	11	12	10	7	5	17	5	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		15	27	28	31	34	35	37	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		7	7	8	14	15	12	18	16	19	20	14
Penetrated Low		3	2	5	8	11	8	11	12	16	15	7
Scenario Percentage		43%	29%	63%	57%	73%	67%	61%	75%	84%	75%	50%
Avg Max Decline		19.85%	11.61%	9.29%	8.99%	9.39%	10.77%	13.08%	14.39%	15.84%	15.20%	15.86%
Max Decline		44.12%	13.56%	21.77%	16.88%	30.96%	25.75%	49.13%	56.50%	47.23%	33.63%	21.92%
Avg Days To Max Decline		17	12	17	16	16	18	18	14	17	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-3.26%	-7.75%	-3.41%	-0.32%	-2.37%	-2.32%	-1.80%	-1.64%	-2.33%	-3.56%	-4.84%
Max Increase		-5.42%	-10.15%	-6.45%	-2.10%	-8.68%	-12.38%	-12.11%	-7.45%	-7.15%	-12.85%	-20.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		14	7	11	4	8	12	10	7	2	10	4
2022 Contract Condition								Yes			Yes
Action								No			Yes
High	145.81	167.81	179.25	183.02	193.31	205.50	208.48	206.73	215.73	240.26	234.41	229.56
Low	133.41	145.62	161.00	167.10	178.30	191.10	185.29	178.76	196.66	212.12	189.23	186.46
Close/Last	142.49	164.02	169.09	179.45	190.59	201.20	207.85	200.28	213.50	229.38	192.82	222.46