MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		12	24	25	28	31	32	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Higher		6	17	18	15	16	20	18	19	16	15	20
Exceeded High		6	16	16	11	15	18	16	16	10	12	19
Scenario Percentage		100%	94%	89%	73%	94%	90%	89%	84%	63%	80%	95%
Avg Max Increase		7.22%	9.90%	8.67%	8.49%	9.40%	10.79%	9.41%	7.37%	11.16%	14.12%	8.45%
Max Increase		11.65%	25.45%	33.12%	15.86%	27.86%	60.66%	32.50%	20.66%	20.48%	26.51%	18.16%
Avg Days To Max Increase		24	17	17	20	17	17	16	14	24	17	15
Avg Max Decline		-4.31%	-2.55%	-1.86%	-2.79%	-2.37%	-1.51%	-2.89%	-2.60%	-2.47%	-3.79%	-1.56%
Max Decline		-13.18%	-8.60%	-7.88%	-9.89%	-13.16%	-8.84%	-10.51%	-10.64%	-6.43%	-12.74%	-7.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	6	8	8	11	9	7	6	16	6	5
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	No	Yes		Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		12	24	25	28	31	32	34	34	34	34	34
Closed Lower		6	6	7	13	15	12	16	15	18	19	14
Penetrated Low		2	1	5	7	11	8	11	11	15	14	7
Scenario Percentage		33%	17%	71%	54%	73%	67%	69%	73%	83%	74%	50%
Avg Max Decline		7.72%	9.66%	9.29%	9.37%	9.39%	10.77%	13.08%	14.17%	16.52%	16.05%	15.86%
Max Decline		9.58%	9.66%	21.77%	16.88%	30.96%	25.75%	49.13%	56.50%	47.23%	33.63%	21.92%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	4	17	17	16	18	18	15	18	18	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.17%	-5.35%	-3.41%	-0.24%	-2.37%	-2.32%	-1.80%	-1.56%	-2.31%	-3.47%	-4.84%
Max Increase		-5.10%	-5.35%	-6.45%	-2.10%	-8.68%	-12.38%	-12.11%	-7.45%	-7.15%	-12.85%	-20.52%
Avg Days to Max Increase		19	12	11	4	8	12	10	7	2	10	4
2019 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes			Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		No					No			Yes	Yes	Not Yet
High	178.91	177.37	179.54	189.34	203.46	197.75	199.30	198.58	209.84	215.54	176.78	151.77
Low	170.05	160.57	161.52	170.36	182.42	182.44	182.21	182.66	190.73	175.63	135.73	122.93
Close/Last	176.11	166.46	176.95	187.48	195.58	197.23	191.80	196.73	208.03	176.27	140.52	130.21