MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		18	26	28	29	32	36	36	37	37	37	37
Closed Higher		9	16	20	20	17	18	25	19	21	19	16
Exceeded High		8	15	19	17	14	17	23	16	20	12	12
Scenario Percentage		89%	94%	95%	85%	82%	94%	92%	84%	95%	63%	75%
Avg Max Increase		11.10%	9.87%	10.02%	9.29%	8.72%	8.78%	10.89%	9.86%	7.86%	10.38%	9.91%
Max Increase		26.22%	21.47%	26.16%	34.34%	16.16%	30.83%	64.52%	32.03%	20.91%	20.41%	14.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	19	17	17	22	18	19	16	11	18	25
Avg Max Decline		-3.48%	-2.03%	-2.39%	-2.16%	-2.88%	-3.08%	-2.80%	-3.15%	-2.67%	-2.02%	-2.90%
Max Decline		-16.28%	-13.63%	-8.85%	-8.17%	-10.30%	-14.30%	-14.42%	-12.01%	-13.00%	-6.97%	-6.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline		7	11	6	7	10	13	10	7	6	12	5
2022 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		18	26	28	29	32	36	36	37	37	37	37
Closed Lower		9	10	7	9	15	18	11	18	16	18	21
Penetrated Low		6	4	4	5	9	11	8	10	12	15	16
Scenario Percentage		67%	40%	57%	56%	60%	61%	73%	56%	75%	83%	76%
Avg Max Decline		13.95%	17.67%	8.23%	9.64%	9.43%	9.93%	11.31%	14.73%	14.95%	16.87%	12.47%
Max Decline		49.07%	46.58%	15.83%	22.15%	17.16%	31.88%	25.96%	49.96%	58.32%	48.71%	35.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	17	12	18	18	17	19	18	14	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.24%	-2.77%	-4.75%	-3.65%	-0.72%	-2.63%	-2.63%	-0.97%	-1.96%	-2.75%	-2.60%
Max Increase		-7.12%	-6.63%	-12.32%	-6.75%	-2.27%	-8.83%	-12.80%	-3.73%	-8.43%	-8.48%	-12.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	11	13	5	8	11	10	7	2	4
2022 Contract Condition									Yes			Yes
Action									No			Yes
High	134.85	145.82	167.75	179.40	183.31	193.11	205.70	209.06	208.11	216.24	242.18	238.25
Low	124.16	132.42	145.23	160.00	166.10	178.10	190.90	184.91	178.30	196.52	212.33	190.45
Close/Last	134.42	142.13	163.85	168.70	179.36	190.36	201.20	208.34	200.51	213.83	231.82	194.01