MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		17	25	27	28	31	35	35	36	36	36	36
Closed Higher		8	15	19	19	16	17	24	19	20	18	16
Exceeded High		7	14	18	16	13	16	22	16	19	12	12
Scenario Percentage		88%	93%	95%	84%	81%	94%	92%	84%	95%	67%	75%
Avg Max Increase		8.94%	9.73%	9.77%	8.95%	8.63%	9.08%	11.22%	9.86%	7.57%	10.38%	9.91%
Max Increase		15.14%	21.47%	26.16%	34.34%	16.16%	30.83%	64.52%	32.03%	20.91%	20.41%	14.97%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	19	17	16	22	18	19	16	11	18	25
Avg Max Decline		-4.29%	-2.01%	-2.44%	-2.25%	-2.89%	-2.77%	-2.27%	-3.15%	-2.77%	-2.02%	-2.90%
Max Decline		-16.28%	-13.63%	-8.85%	-8.17%	-10.30%	-14.30%	-13.96%	-12.01%	-13.00%	-6.97%	-6.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	12	6	7	7	12	10	7	6	12	5
2021 Contract Condition						Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes
Action						Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov
Tested Years		17	25	27	28	31	35	35	36	36	36	36
Closed Lower		9	10	7	9	15	18	11	17	16	18	20
Penetrated Low		6	4	4	5	9	11	8	10	12	15	15
Scenario Percentage		67%	40%	57%	56%	60%	61%	73%	59%	75%	83%	75%
Avg Max Decline		13.95%	17.67%	8.23%	9.64%	9.43%	9.93%	11.31%	14.73%	14.95%	16.87%	13.09%
Max Decline		49.07%	46.58%	15.83%	22.15%	17.16%	31.88%	25.96%	49.96%	58.32%	48.71%	35.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline		12	17	12	18	18	17	19	18	14	17	19
Avg Max Increase		-2.24%	-2.77%	-4.75%	-3.65%	-0.72%	-2.63%	-2.63%	-0.97%	-1.96%	-2.75%	-2.44%
Max Increase		-7.12%	-6.63%	-12.32%	-6.75%	-2.27%	-8.83%	-12.80%	-3.73%	-8.43%	-8.48%	-12.20%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	11	11	13	5	8	11	10	7	2	4
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	161.00	163.98	148.61	134.70	90.05	101.50	117.00	116.10	122.74	120.91	119.44	128.15
Low	147.88	138.00	125.29	70.66	67.48	76.33	98.84	105.65	108.28	105.88	100.15	96.66
Close/Last	157.52	138.73	126.33	80.17	79.60	100.72	107.69	109.15	118.08	116.33	102.72	124.16